Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec54.18650.76932.7561.72551.223139.474
Dec-Jan83.88478.11448.8663.36174.280182.872
Dec-Feb105.132100.57069.9255.134103.732330.847

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10123.372186.641
20103.499147.989
3089.608125.891
4078.816107.259
5070.05592.464
6061.60577.936
7053.56065.411
8044.56652.346
9032.84136.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1187.124317.374
2165.469269.981
3154.940252.931
4147.318239.517
5141.317229.915
6137.236217.004
7132.705208.219
8129.489200.209
9126.609192.398
10123.372186.641
11120.761181.929
12118.435176.793
13115.913172.939
14114.287169.111
15112.498164.940
16110.841161.655
17108.896157.846
18107.193153.995
19105.296150.628
20103.499147.989
21102.150145.451
22100.564142.637
2398.989140.677
2497.347137.830
2595.699136.052
2694.526134.524
2793.184132.203
2891.778130.364
2990.614128.232
3089.608125.891
3188.555123.755
3287.366121.588
3386.322119.881
3485.484118.200
3584.374115.895
3683.375114.055
3782.079112.220
3881.115110.509
3980.013109.105
4078.816107.259
4177.920105.475
4277.121104.152
4376.149103.038
4475.299101.507
4574.258100.129
4673.29698.586
4772.65997.185
4871.76195.354
4970.78793.966
5070.05592.464
5169.13491.098
5268.30689.729
5367.44588.124
5466.59986.585
5565.62285.020
5664.81983.117
5764.03581.990
5863.26280.848
5962.51079.591
6061.60577.936
6160.69476.278
6259.96875.063
6359.27573.925
6458.46872.522
6557.67771.426
6657.01470.302
6756.10269.248
6855.22267.868
6954.45266.442
7053.56065.411
7152.46663.993
7251.77262.850
7350.93361.502
7449.91160.289
7549.02358.936
7648.21457.718
7747.37156.381
7846.56455.136
7945.72753.935
8044.56652.346
8143.67350.836
8242.65749.384
8341.85047.715
8440.76046.300
8539.53945.059
8638.15343.366
8737.01241.592
8835.60940.140
8934.35338.370
9032.84136.360
9131.51234.442
9230.14332.118
9328.59629.563
9426.38326.325
9524.28123.904
9621.74320.996
9719.49416.468
9815.82112.225
9910.0676.731


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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