Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec54.18650.76931.8981.72551.223139.474
Dec-Jan83.88478.11448.4533.36174.280182.872
Dec-Feb105.132100.57069.1855.134103.732330.847

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10124.013186.641
20104.096147.989
3090.149125.891
4079.324107.259
5070.51192.464
6062.02277.936
7053.98665.411
8044.91252.346
9033.18036.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1188.260317.374
2166.199269.981
3155.660252.931
4147.976239.517
5141.985229.915
6137.935217.004
7133.406208.219
8130.128200.209
9127.160192.398
10124.013186.641
11121.377181.929
12118.998176.793
13116.492172.939
14114.783169.111
15113.088164.940
16111.356161.655
17109.497157.846
18107.734153.995
19105.788150.628
20104.096147.989
21102.678145.451
22101.188142.637
2399.525140.677
2497.841137.830
2596.315136.052
2695.055134.524
2793.653132.203
2892.287130.364
2991.126128.232
3090.149125.891
3189.049123.755
3287.897121.588
3386.884119.881
3485.970118.200
3584.854115.895
3683.859114.055
3782.603112.220
3881.577110.509
3980.478109.105
4079.324107.259
4178.452105.475
4277.570104.152
4376.641103.038
4475.756101.507
4574.700100.129
4673.75798.586
4773.09097.185
4872.21395.354
4971.24593.966
5070.51192.464
5169.59591.098
5268.70089.729
5367.91188.124
5467.05986.585
5566.01285.020
5665.23483.117
5764.47481.990
5863.69080.848
5962.97079.591
6062.02277.936
6161.11476.278
6260.37575.063
6359.70573.925
6458.86172.522
6558.05871.426
6657.45470.302
6756.49669.248
6855.57367.868
6954.90066.442
7053.98665.411
7152.85463.993
7252.15962.850
7351.33461.502
7450.25760.289
7549.45458.936
7648.55657.718
7747.76456.381
7846.92555.136
7946.06753.935
8044.91252.346
8144.02350.836
8243.03649.384
8342.21647.715
8441.07746.300
8539.83845.059
8638.52543.366
8737.31841.592
8835.96540.140
8934.65138.370
9033.18036.360
9131.84934.442
9230.44532.118
9328.88329.563
9426.73226.325
9524.56623.904
9622.09720.996
9719.74516.468
9816.10512.225
9910.2056.731


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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