Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar20.161195.89622.6270.59735.13257.033
Mar-Apr45.503228.44643.2284.79650.045390.860
Mar-May85.386262.85869.11012.36069.413663.917

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10125.475151.599
2095.358108.551
3078.42587.112
4066.06970.818
5056.25559.039
6047.79248.474
7040.19240.165
8031.79032.290
9022.95023.766

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1240.700351.498
2198.093269.042
3176.979242.212
4165.878222.131
5154.264208.306
6146.385190.434
7139.679178.738
8133.063168.402
9129.575158.621
10125.475151.599
11121.131145.971
12117.361139.957
13113.750135.527
14110.416131.196
15108.388126.557
16105.461122.961
17102.861118.856
1899.742114.775
1997.104111.265
2095.358108.551
2193.096105.972
2290.994103.148
2389.612101.203
2487.74298.410
2586.01796.685
2684.48995.214
2782.98893.001
2881.47991.267
2979.71189.275
3078.42587.112
3176.87085.161
3275.65083.205
3374.05281.678
3472.75080.188
3571.72378.168
3670.36976.572
3769.41774.997
3868.30973.543
3967.15572.360
4066.06970.818
4165.09469.343
4263.94768.259
4362.79167.353
4461.80066.117
4560.98665.014
4659.59163.789
4758.65262.686
4857.78461.259
4957.05360.188
5056.25559.039
5155.24858.004
5254.47556.974
5353.56555.779
5452.57454.645
5551.79653.502
5651.08152.128
5750.04151.322
5849.25850.512
5948.44249.628
6047.79248.474
6146.94647.332
6246.04346.503
6345.30045.733
6444.43444.792
6543.74144.063
6643.21043.322
6742.36242.632
6841.68441.737
6941.06240.821
7040.19240.165
7139.27439.271
7238.44638.558
7337.74937.724
7436.69036.981
7535.90436.161
7635.14035.430
7734.24734.636
7833.35133.904
7932.60533.205
8031.79032.290
8130.97831.433
8230.07230.618
8329.32429.695
8428.62328.922
8527.76728.252
8626.57827.351
8725.66526.420
8824.73025.671
8923.86124.770
9022.95023.766
9121.94922.826
9220.82021.711
9319.61520.516
9418.61419.046
9517.05517.981
9615.53716.740
9713.86114.890
9811.65813.249
998.66211.259


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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