Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May39.89134.91225.8828.72219.418273.057
May-Jun105.426162.11191.26117.51862.847614.688
May-Jul207.332319.949213.78430.074139.412915.713

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10321.234385.456
20251.392279.946
30208.783226.660
40177.070185.898
50152.158156.140
60129.200129.182
70110.217107.987
8088.75087.609
9065.25765.310

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1584.029860.329
2498.906667.438
3456.523603.413
4420.751555.800
5395.700521.725
6377.527479.469
7360.183451.405
8344.002426.234
9330.789402.509
10321.234385.456
11312.236371.786
12302.819357.218
13295.544346.371
14286.866335.645
15279.323324.257
16273.938315.520
17268.462305.319
18262.792295.204
19257.122286.585
20251.392279.946
21245.827273.597
22242.069266.373
23237.838261.800
24232.360254.805
25229.028250.586
26223.798246.951
27219.862241.316
28216.739236.921
29213.210232.117
30208.783226.660
31205.178221.849
32201.879216.836
33198.002213.026
34194.488209.468
35191.402204.287
36188.341200.378
37185.705196.390
38182.671192.789
39179.769189.774
40177.070185.898
41174.934182.164
42171.644179.473
43169.094177.141
44166.580174.053
45164.425171.285
46162.051168.131
47159.394165.423
48156.890161.804
49154.284159.037
50152.158156.140
51149.428153.519
52147.178150.959
53144.589147.826
54142.148145.043
55140.018141.971
56137.600138.602
57136.055136.542
58133.227134.439
59131.029132.221
60129.200129.182
61127.486126.331
62125.719124.233
63123.641122.241
64121.837119.882
65120.163118.012
66117.981116.108
67115.908114.336
68113.931112.033
69111.846109.677
70110.217107.987
71108.287105.683
72106.009103.842
73103.925101.689
74101.82599.770
7599.51697.648
7697.75595.756
7795.32993.698
7893.37091.800
7991.25889.984
8088.75087.609
8186.65985.378
8284.29883.256
8381.51180.848
8479.35578.830
8577.08077.081
8674.89174.721
8772.01972.285
8870.14670.318
8968.02267.952
9065.25765.310
9162.43462.833
9259.41659.889
9356.09256.726
9453.00552.827
9549.26649.993
9644.31846.681
9740.57941.728
9834.93237.311
9927.57331.922


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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