Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun65.535127.19865.3798.79643.429341.631
Jun-Jul167.441285.037189.18921.352119.994642.656
Jun-Aug304.927424.585430.57644.610230.570927.912

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10422.813561.076
20352.271428.566
30300.457354.842
40261.125295.208
50227.737250.172
60197.050208.438
70170.992174.748
80139.920142.141
90105.979106.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1697.153983.808
2608.311838.785
3553.671784.049
4524.716740.099
5501.624708.203
6482.539664.808
7464.534634.992
8451.172607.647
9435.735580.867
10422.813561.076
11415.051544.862
12406.123527.181
13396.467513.916
14387.561500.750
15382.144486.422
16377.213475.156
17370.985462.120
18365.859448.976
19359.593437.519
20352.271428.566
21345.433419.978
22339.017410.490
23333.908403.900
24329.033394.360
25323.646388.422
26318.148383.333
27314.449375.628
28310.018369.547
29304.993362.522
30300.457354.842
31296.671347.865
32292.594340.825
33287.912335.300
34283.847329.882
35279.952322.493
36276.104316.624
37272.063310.800
38267.928305.399
39264.313300.983
40261.125295.208
41257.406289.656
42253.969285.561
43249.938282.125
44246.348277.424
45243.163273.214
46239.901268.524
47236.650264.287
48233.382258.783
49230.143254.636
50227.737250.172
51225.098246.137
52222.107242.114
53218.723237.427
54215.981232.964
55213.360228.455
56210.128223.014
57206.428219.811
58203.757216.584
59200.367213.054
60197.050208.438
61194.764203.850
62192.099200.513
63189.813197.405
64186.759193.600
65184.496190.647
66181.962187.635
67179.529184.829
68177.152181.178
69174.210177.436
70170.992174.748
71168.528171.080
72164.774168.147
73162.278164.711
74158.393161.645
75156.026158.250
76153.554155.220
77149.376151.921
78146.504148.876
79143.974145.961
80139.920142.141
81136.342138.550
82132.568135.133
83129.030131.249
84125.908127.992
85122.994125.165
86119.346121.351
87116.907117.408
88113.293114.223
89109.476110.388
90105.979106.103
91101.167102.081
9296.95897.300
9391.93592.156
9485.95585.812
9579.81581.198
9674.54775.803
9766.86867.730
9857.21660.529
9943.59951.743


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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