Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct156.112101.27680.39531.12691.751395.468
Oct-Nov246.524159.085122.37338.773159.316631.682
Oct-Dec300.356190.983162.71343.213212.130693.274

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10520.463511.253
20459.323430.111
30412.665377.130
40376.205327.938
50343.390285.645
60313.965241.385
70282.933201.490
80246.203159.259
90202.455109.691

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1690.773716.756
2640.403651.353
3613.272625.663
4590.655604.506
5575.594588.804
6561.897566.892
7549.800551.418
8539.822536.883
9527.612522.289
10520.463511.253
11512.217502.038
12505.375491.794
13497.230483.967
14491.229476.069
15485.230467.320
16479.601460.320
17474.931452.081
18469.421443.610
19463.481436.087
20459.323430.111
21453.811424.295
22448.303417.771
23442.857413.177
24438.697406.428
25435.570402.167
26431.214398.478
27426.597392.823
28421.692388.300
29416.950383.005
30412.665377.130
31408.669371.709
32404.578366.157
33401.182361.740
34397.680357.355
35393.930351.286
36390.529346.392
37387.202341.468
38383.219336.839
39379.657333.010
40376.205327.938
41373.233322.991
42368.926319.298
43364.983316.168
44361.954311.841
45358.360307.920
46355.226303.499
47352.464299.457
48349.548294.135
49346.258290.072
50343.390285.645
51339.622281.595
52336.697277.511
53333.221272.694
54331.174268.045
55327.848263.287
56325.140257.460
57322.439253.987
58319.329250.455
59316.579246.551
60313.965241.385
61310.858236.180
62308.668232.350
63305.816228.748
64303.662224.294
65300.518220.803
66297.853217.211
67294.141213.836
68290.548209.405
69286.990204.816
70282.933201.490
71278.995196.910
72275.233193.215
73271.895188.851
74268.213184.923
75264.995180.539
76260.937176.596
77257.314172.269
78254.165168.247
79250.606164.372
80246.203159.259
81242.883154.418
82239.472149.782
83235.068144.484
84230.173140.018
85226.386136.127
86221.806130.858
87217.244125.394
88212.032120.973
89206.783115.644
90202.455109.691
91197.689104.111
92193.42597.501
93188.13090.436
94179.53981.814
95170.56175.631
96163.76768.517
97151.84658.167
98137.36749.298
99121.77439.046


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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