Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct156.112101.27679.40931.12691.750395.468
Oct-Nov246.523159.085121.74338.773159.314631.682
Oct-Dec300.357190.983158.20443.213212.138693.274

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10515.032511.253
20454.413430.111
30408.327377.130
40371.662327.938
50339.152285.645
60309.795241.385
70278.818201.490
80242.615159.259
90199.768109.691

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1684.439716.756
2635.108651.353
3609.353625.663
4584.754604.506
5570.818588.804
6556.392566.892
7544.135551.418
8534.339536.883
9522.121522.289
10515.032511.253
11507.681502.038
12500.025491.794
13491.762483.967
14485.865476.069
15480.149467.320
16474.574460.320
17469.761452.081
18464.370443.610
19457.853436.087
20454.413430.111
21448.977424.295
22443.719417.771
23438.183413.177
24433.861406.428
25430.668402.167
26426.542398.478
27421.556392.823
28416.938388.300
29412.137383.005
30408.327377.130
31403.927371.709
32399.676366.157
33396.505361.740
34392.736357.355
35389.521351.286
36385.918346.392
37382.587341.468
38378.607336.839
39375.174333.010
40371.662327.938
41368.780322.991
42364.214319.298
43360.438316.168
44357.407311.841
45353.870307.920
46350.834303.499
47348.047299.457
48345.002294.135
49341.814290.072
50339.152285.645
51335.602281.595
52332.532277.511
53328.882272.694
54326.595268.045
55323.726263.287
56321.037257.460
57318.163253.987
58315.344250.455
59312.278246.551
60309.795241.385
61306.769236.180
62304.525232.350
63301.647228.748
64299.556224.294
65296.343220.803
66293.650217.211
67290.440213.836
68286.760209.405
69283.296204.816
70278.818201.490
71275.428196.910
72271.315193.215
73268.318188.851
74264.678184.923
75261.425180.539
76257.519176.596
77253.979172.269
78250.480168.247
79246.988164.372
80242.615159.259
81239.344154.418
82235.909149.782
83231.733144.484
84227.099140.018
85223.160136.127
86218.340130.858
87213.920125.394
88209.012120.973
89203.647115.644
90199.768109.691
91194.423104.111
92190.20597.501
93185.33590.436
94177.12181.814
95167.89275.631
96160.74768.517
97149.40658.167
98134.72249.298
99119.20139.046


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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