Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov90.41257.80942.3349.67367.564252.575
Nov-Dec144.24589.70778.79411.399120.389433.806
Nov-Jan173.745106.26298.78313.035144.510484.394

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10216.497306.244
20180.814255.245
30159.401221.837
40141.698190.701
50127.005163.823
60113.140135.603
7099.146110.178
8082.52583.538
9064.87553.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1310.781435.046
2281.194394.078
3268.571377.983
4255.262364.725
5246.095354.883
6238.215341.147
7231.043331.443
8225.728322.326
9220.968313.170
10216.497306.244
11211.532300.459
12207.609294.026
13203.877289.110
14199.867284.148
15195.932278.650
16193.035274.250
17190.044269.069
18186.715263.740
19183.731259.006
20180.814255.245
21178.808251.583
22176.753247.473
23173.540244.578
24171.389240.325
25169.345237.638
26167.122235.312
27164.462231.744
28162.933228.890
29161.143225.547
30159.401221.837
31157.536218.412
32155.910214.903
33153.977212.110
34152.409209.336
35150.616205.496
36148.747202.397
37147.318199.278
38145.690196.345
39143.739193.918
40141.698190.701
41140.067187.563
42138.649185.219
43137.223183.232
44135.590180.483
45133.751177.992
46132.360175.182
47131.034172.612
48129.717169.227
49128.172166.641
50127.005163.823
51125.891161.244
52124.700158.642
53123.483155.573
54121.876152.610
55120.312149.576
56118.801145.860
57117.694143.644
58116.218141.391
59114.532138.900
60113.140135.603
61111.738132.282
62110.556129.839
63109.536127.541
64108.189124.700
65106.655122.474
66104.899120.185
67103.528118.035
68101.990115.213
69100.695112.293
7099.146110.178
7197.673107.269
7295.981104.924
7394.394102.158
7492.48099.671
7590.78796.901
7688.81594.413
7787.27291.689
7885.63889.162
7984.24286.733
8082.52583.538
8180.99280.523
8279.30377.647
8377.78474.373
8476.03271.628
8574.56569.246
8672.77766.038
8770.93962.733
8868.86160.077
8966.71856.899
9064.87553.381
9162.37250.117
9259.08346.297
9355.24242.272
9452.23437.451
9549.07034.061
9645.54730.235
9741.03524.824
9835.77320.351
9929.15015.393


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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