Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov90.41257.80941.9789.67367.564252.575
Nov-Dec144.24589.70782.31811.399120.389433.806
Nov-Jan173.745106.262106.10213.035144.510484.394

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10218.177306.244
20182.124255.245
30160.853221.837
40142.978190.701
50128.117163.823
60114.217135.603
70100.127110.178
8083.44583.538
9065.67653.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1312.223435.046
2282.849394.078
3270.113377.983
4256.915364.725
5247.611354.883
6239.960341.147
7232.526331.443
8227.310322.326
9222.521313.170
10218.177306.244
11213.092300.459
12209.047294.026
13205.234289.110
14201.285284.148
15197.388278.650
16194.466274.250
17191.314269.069
18188.136263.740
19185.137259.006
20182.124255.245
21180.403251.583
22178.100247.473
23175.059244.578
24172.881240.325
25170.802237.638
26168.590235.312
27166.061231.744
28164.312228.890
29162.451225.547
30160.853221.837
31158.781218.412
32157.224214.903
33155.328212.110
34153.693209.336
35151.829205.496
36149.961202.397
37148.494199.278
38146.868196.345
39145.016193.918
40142.978190.701
41141.316187.563
42139.746185.219
43138.547183.232
44136.810180.483
45134.946177.992
46133.526175.182
47132.235172.612
48130.813169.227
49129.237166.641
50128.117163.823
51127.076161.244
52125.796158.642
53124.547155.573
54122.974152.610
55121.301149.576
56119.884145.860
57118.821143.644
58117.304141.391
59115.567138.900
60114.217135.603
61112.735132.282
62111.534129.839
63110.594127.541
64109.120124.700
65107.666122.474
66105.915120.185
67104.629118.035
68103.033115.213
69101.674112.293
70100.127110.178
7198.637107.269
7296.970104.924
7395.415102.158
7493.40599.671
7591.69096.901
7689.73394.413
7788.19091.689
7886.59389.162
7985.17286.733
8083.44583.538
8181.84080.523
8280.06977.647
8378.61574.373
8476.85671.628
8575.42769.246
8673.49766.038
8771.71662.733
8869.68160.077
8967.55756.899
9065.67653.381
9163.17950.117
9259.82746.297
9356.01142.272
9452.90137.451
9549.89134.061
9646.26130.235
9741.63324.824
9836.32020.351
9929.65315.393


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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