Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr25.27620.60117.6548.34415.818333.827
Apr-May64.94846.48445.23517.06635.864606.884
Apr-Jun130.481111.863113.46125.86281.998948.515

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10191.643235.600
20146.915170.820
30121.115138.216
40101.754113.237
5086.66495.047
6073.92378.617
7061.86365.601
8050.62553.172
9036.37639.587

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1383.084529.338
2310.824409.239
3276.506369.880
4258.570340.314
5241.916319.902
6228.581293.439
7217.467276.071
8206.528260.687
9198.753246.096
10191.643235.600
11185.502227.175
12179.480218.158
13173.924211.507
14169.169204.997
15164.803198.015
16160.999192.596
17156.816186.403
18153.095180.238
19150.184174.929
20146.915170.820
21143.626166.911
22140.486162.628
23137.465159.675
24134.730155.431
25132.068152.807
26130.136150.570
27127.776147.200
28125.818144.556
29123.668141.517
30121.115138.216
31118.523135.235
32116.510132.243
33114.771129.907
34112.522127.625
35110.939124.528
36109.282122.081
37107.202119.662
38105.365117.429
39103.393115.609
40101.754113.237
41100.293110.966
4298.336109.296
4397.004107.898
4495.516105.991
4593.874104.289
4692.427102.397
4790.552100.693
4889.28998.486
4987.97296.828
5086.66495.047
5185.42993.442
5284.04791.845
5382.79889.990
5481.32788.228
5579.90286.452
5678.73984.314
5777.30983.058
5876.01181.796
5974.97980.417
6073.92378.617
6172.71876.833
6271.52375.537
6370.50674.332
6469.20672.860
6568.01671.719
6666.90070.556
6765.49169.475
6864.25568.070
6962.99366.632
7061.86365.601
7160.70864.195
7259.56363.072
7358.15861.759
7457.29060.588
7556.35659.293
7655.25558.140
7754.13256.884
7853.09855.727
7952.01354.620
8050.62553.172
8149.39451.812
8247.80750.519
8346.56049.051
8445.51347.822
8544.16446.756
8642.67845.318
8741.11943.834
8839.50242.636
8937.74241.195
9036.37639.587
9134.58938.079
9233.29636.287
9331.57734.362
9429.44831.990
9527.53630.266
9625.00728.252
9722.88425.242
9819.66922.558
9915.26019.286


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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