Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb21.50820.7329.3673.52130.93636.252
Feb-Mar41.71543.35920.0274.11867.71893.285
Feb-Apr66.99163.96037.6818.31683.536427.112

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1085.858115.348
2067.90183.070
3057.39266.906
4048.96354.569
5042.51645.616
6036.50737.557
7031.24531.193
8025.50525.139
9018.82418.552

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1153.913263.391
2129.635202.600
3119.509182.748
4111.395167.861
5104.089157.597
698.219144.309
794.140135.600
891.225127.895
988.573120.594
1085.858115.348
1183.313111.139
1280.964106.638
1378.820103.321
1477.168100.075
1575.16596.597
1673.46993.898
1772.18590.816
1870.56887.750
1969.23785.111
2067.90183.070
2166.59181.129
2265.29079.003
2364.07377.538
2462.89275.433
2561.97874.132
2661.06973.023
2759.96671.353
2859.15170.044
2958.36968.540
3057.39266.906
3156.40365.431
3255.37263.952
3354.68262.797
3453.78661.670
3552.89860.140
3651.96758.932
3751.24657.738
3850.43756.636
3949.73255.738
4048.96354.569
4148.18053.449
4247.46852.627
4346.87151.938
4446.08250.999
4545.48250.161
4644.91149.230
4744.28048.392
4843.66347.306
4943.15146.491
5042.51645.616
5141.92844.828
5241.27444.043
5340.73943.132
5440.14442.268
5539.54441.396
5638.90240.348
5738.20639.732
5837.49939.114
5937.03238.438
6036.50737.557
6135.97736.683
6235.49236.049
6334.97735.460
6434.43834.739
6533.82634.182
6633.33433.614
6732.83133.085
6832.39332.399
6931.78831.697
7031.24531.193
7130.72430.507
7230.26229.960
7329.78129.319
7429.21928.749
7528.51428.118
7627.93727.556
7727.30826.945
7826.73726.382
7926.15725.843
8025.50525.139
8124.74424.478
8224.18523.850
8323.63723.137
8422.92322.541
8522.31022.023
8621.71121.327
8720.92220.607
8820.28120.027
8919.55919.330
9018.82418.552
9118.14917.823
9217.27916.957
9316.51416.028
9415.21614.885
9514.15114.055
9613.22213.087
9712.03011.642
9810.38210.356
998.1708.793


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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