Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb21.50820.73210.5493.52130.93636.252
Feb-Mar41.71543.35922.8594.11867.71893.285
Feb-Apr66.99163.96040.9388.31683.536427.112

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1093.349115.348
2074.32983.070
3062.75366.906
4053.85154.569
5046.72745.616
6040.21337.557
7034.48531.193
8028.33925.139
9021.13318.552

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1167.830263.391
2140.822202.600
3130.567182.748
4121.522167.861
5112.670157.597
6107.651144.309
7102.795135.600
899.204127.895
996.726120.594
1093.349115.348
1190.731111.139
1288.116106.638
1385.953103.321
1484.189100.075
1582.11896.597
1680.30993.898
1778.51790.816
1877.30187.750
1975.81385.111
2074.32983.070
2172.97881.129
2271.64679.003
2370.00477.538
2468.90775.433
2567.84774.132
2666.63473.023
2765.63671.353
2864.63770.044
2963.78568.540
3062.75366.906
3161.72465.431
3260.72563.952
3359.82562.797
3458.91861.670
3558.08460.140
3657.07058.932
3756.42557.738
3855.45656.636
3954.65455.738
4053.85154.569
4152.88753.449
4252.17552.627
4351.53051.938
4450.82050.999
4549.93550.161
4649.29849.230
4748.59148.392
4847.96347.306
4947.29846.491
5046.72745.616
5146.05444.828
5245.50444.043
5344.83243.132
5444.20342.268
5543.42041.396
5642.81840.348
5742.13239.732
5841.38939.114
5940.86138.438
6040.21337.557
6139.66136.683
6239.08936.049
6338.48535.460
6437.77234.739
6537.33234.182
6636.69433.614
6736.22633.085
6835.65032.399
6935.09931.697
7034.48531.193
7134.00630.507
7233.42629.960
7332.96129.319
7432.28928.749
7531.63728.118
7630.94527.556
7730.41426.945
7829.69426.382
7928.89125.843
8028.33925.139
8127.49924.478
8226.90023.850
8326.30923.137
8425.49822.541
8524.90422.023
8624.13621.327
8723.40820.607
8822.71920.027
8921.96319.330
9021.13318.552
9120.27617.823
9219.38216.957
9318.43616.028
9417.21414.885
9516.10414.055
9614.96013.087
9713.82611.642
9811.91310.356
999.5468.793


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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