Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( May 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10864.3301288.327
20641.131898.122
30522.369708.040
40429.641566.014
50358.683464.945
60297.381375.672
70247.520306.546
80194.481242.108
90137.927173.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11712.6703183.375
21469.6722390.284
31312.3722135.001
41191.5981945.095
51105.9611815.018
61037.7161647.750
7984.2681538.885
8944.2081443.104
9903.9421352.860
10864.3301288.327
11833.2011236.769
12808.4531181.836
13777.3471141.486
14756.7601102.141
15735.7851060.104
16707.3591027.603
17689.258990.589
18674.403953.893
19656.313922.409
20641.131898.122
21627.475875.081
22614.403849.912
23604.518832.605
24591.723807.798
25576.847792.502
26564.212779.482
27552.580759.919
28540.669744.609
29532.043727.057
30522.369708.040
31510.189690.910
32500.103673.768
33489.730660.413
34481.193647.401
35470.448629.784
36463.127615.899
37452.483602.212
38444.170589.600
39436.379579.347
40429.641566.014
41420.834553.276
42412.170543.935
43403.571536.127
44396.727525.496
45390.064516.023
46383.207505.519
47375.816496.079
48370.269483.880
49364.346474.739
50358.683464.945
51352.290456.133
52346.378447.387
53340.503437.247
54333.624427.640
55326.255417.980
56320.323406.387
57315.660399.596
58309.724392.778
59303.363385.346
60297.381375.672
61292.888366.106
62287.894359.178
63283.374352.749
64278.252344.908
65273.686338.845
66268.834332.682
67263.287326.958
68258.285319.539
69252.328311.966
70247.520306.546
71243.295299.175
72237.487293.304
73232.980286.451
74226.838280.358
75220.191273.637
76215.491267.662
77209.487261.179
78203.644255.217
79198.602249.530
80194.481242.108
81189.164235.162
82183.348228.579
83177.164221.133
84170.423214.916
85165.450209.540
86160.236202.318
87155.159194.888
88149.606188.916
89144.879181.758
90137.927173.806
91132.001166.384
92125.824157.616
93118.316148.253
94109.377136.806
95101.093128.554
9690.145118.986
9780.214104.840
9868.01892.407
9954.55277.494


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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