Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101074.9661613.334
20911.8231341.278
30799.5221162.082
40691.930993.433
50615.703845.301
60550.931684.845
70481.358532.246
80403.707358.122
90312.736148.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11546.0082298.386
21427.6802080.591
31348.0521995.013
41291.8881924.511
51230.2601872.168
61186.8441799.100
71158.5311747.471
81131.2611698.953
91101.0111650.214
101074.9661613.334
111053.7341582.521
121035.6421548.250
131014.4781522.051
141000.5181495.599
15980.8351466.276
16966.3751442.799
17953.5041415.143
18938.0791386.687
19924.4681361.388
20911.8231341.278
21897.2381321.690
22882.0771299.696
23874.1061284.192
24861.5841261.399
25850.3131246.993
26840.2861234.511
27830.8451215.359
28820.1391200.023
29809.8191182.050
30799.5221162.082
31788.8561143.631
32778.9781124.704
33768.9431109.621
34756.3101094.631
35743.3531073.848
36734.1411057.054
37723.9931040.125
38713.5581024.182
39702.8151010.970
40691.930993.433
41683.234976.289
42676.472963.465
43668.369952.575
44658.650937.490
45651.692923.790
46643.882908.303
47636.115894.107
48629.704875.358
49622.682860.996
50615.703845.301
51609.223830.894
52602.672816.317
53596.584799.058
54590.398782.334
55582.836765.136
56575.974743.968
57569.681731.287
58562.495718.339
59556.273703.969
60550.931684.845
61545.535665.451
62539.256651.091
63532.266637.518
64524.954620.633
65518.099607.316
66510.941593.542
67502.471580.525
68495.859563.318
69489.566545.357
70481.358532.246
71473.661514.059
72465.170499.270
73458.549481.660
74451.478465.681
75443.353447.693
76435.163431.377
77428.284413.326
78420.065396.403
79410.555379.973
80403.707358.122
81395.810337.268
82388.009317.172
83377.440294.101
84370.225274.627
85362.023257.683
86353.193234.873
87343.251211.519
88334.671192.984
89324.752171.252
90312.736148.031
91299.885127.542
92285.579105.181
93273.58583.868
94258.57461.724
95246.38248.450
96226.57735.731
97206.35721.613
98185.77013.060
99152.4266.461


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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