Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101070.6061613.334
20907.8491341.278
30795.8061162.082
40688.287993.433
50612.725845.301
60548.134684.845
70478.558532.246
80401.416358.122
90310.741148.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11540.3302298.386
21423.3962080.591
31342.3191995.013
41287.6251924.511
51225.5821872.168
61182.1601799.100
71153.6901747.471
81126.4111698.953
91096.1891650.214
101070.6061613.334
111049.8931582.521
121031.1911548.250
131010.5021522.051
14996.1141495.599
15976.8871466.276
16961.9001442.799
17949.1561415.143
18933.7611386.687
19919.6661361.388
20907.8491341.278
21893.7331321.690
22878.1281299.696
23870.0491284.192
24858.1301261.399
25846.4121246.993
26836.6111234.511
27826.9621215.359
28816.0231200.023
29806.1551182.050
30795.8061162.082
31784.9201143.631
32775.0921124.704
33764.9411109.621
34752.3521094.631
35739.4981073.848
36730.6801057.054
37720.5381040.125
38710.0671024.182
39698.9091010.970
40688.287993.433
41679.871976.289
42673.084963.465
43665.067952.575
44655.271937.490
45648.532923.790
46640.369908.303
47632.829894.107
48626.732875.358
49619.513860.996
50612.725845.301
51606.088830.894
52599.482816.317
53593.771799.058
54587.305782.334
55580.232765.136
56572.691743.968
57566.616731.287
58559.594718.339
59553.586703.969
60548.134684.845
61542.528665.451
62536.535651.091
63529.757637.518
64522.423620.633
65515.248607.316
66508.684593.542
67499.860580.525
68493.206563.318
69486.730545.357
70478.558532.246
71470.968514.059
72462.466499.270
73456.047481.660
74448.939465.681
75440.625447.693
76432.599431.377
77426.000413.326
78417.912396.403
79408.216379.973
80401.416358.122
81393.606337.268
82385.670317.172
83375.340294.101
84368.197274.627
85359.907257.683
86350.921234.873
87341.231211.519
88332.902192.984
89323.014171.252
90310.741148.031
91297.976127.542
92283.457105.181
93271.83483.868
94256.46761.724
95244.82448.450
96225.02235.731
97204.98021.613
98184.40613.060
99151.0506.461


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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