Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10628.822928.477
20536.484746.638
30468.357637.499
40409.512541.911
50358.158463.293
60310.232383.396
70260.153312.037
80202.460234.777
90132.259135.573

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1867.0781485.571
2796.7831291.683
3756.3801219.964
4727.6921162.694
5703.6191121.211
6687.3841064.744
7670.6841025.838
8654.414990.009
9642.721954.720
10628.822928.477
11620.169906.853
12610.185883.118
13597.877865.196
14589.624847.295
15579.913827.676
16570.669812.137
17562.019794.022
18554.081775.598
19544.849759.397
20536.484746.638
21527.737734.312
22522.412720.590
23515.155710.991
24507.651696.991
25499.115688.209
26493.466680.643
27488.628669.109
28482.629659.939
29475.761649.265
30468.357637.499
31462.458626.713
32455.923615.734
33449.238607.047
34442.756598.466
35436.739586.657
36431.300577.188
37425.461567.711
38420.759558.845
39415.614551.542
40409.512541.911
41404.134532.563
42399.045525.614
43395.107519.742
44390.078511.651
45382.769504.347
46377.546496.140
47372.548488.664
48367.681478.857
49362.731471.396
50358.158463.293
51352.631455.901
52347.736448.467
53343.331439.723
54338.545431.309
55334.290422.717
56329.649412.224
57325.873405.982
58321.537399.643
59315.913392.645
60310.232383.396
61305.550374.089
62300.956367.244
63296.994360.811
64291.930352.855
65286.123346.618
66280.329340.200
67275.347334.165
68269.515326.234
69265.981318.009
70260.153312.037
71255.172303.800
72249.548297.138
73243.647289.246
74238.633282.120
75232.542274.136
76226.415266.925
77221.563258.975
78214.219251.544
79209.274244.344
80202.460234.777
81196.263225.641
82190.943216.810
83184.166206.609
84178.183197.912
85170.802190.251
86164.154179.745
87157.410168.667
88148.073159.551
89141.049148.362
90132.259135.573
91123.931123.272
92115.510108.248
93107.43991.561
9495.57970.153
9584.60253.951
9672.55434.250
9757.9743.043
9837.8780.000
997.3650.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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