Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10421.296608.426
20352.129468.415
30311.284389.491
40275.624323.576
50246.144271.648
60219.333221.024
70190.451177.676
80161.585132.766
90123.17478.265

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1633.2151101.897
2568.114919.238
3529.218854.613
4508.772804.152
5484.960768.237
6469.760720.211
7457.355687.700
8444.820658.180
9434.142629.499
10421.296608.426
11411.597591.224
12403.822572.515
13395.666558.505
14387.798544.614
15380.898529.507
16374.674517.629
17367.769503.880
18362.410490.005
19356.685477.893
20352.129468.415
21348.242459.307
22344.335449.227
23339.821442.211
24334.905432.032
25331.015425.680
26326.574420.227
27322.606411.951
28319.046405.401
29315.416397.813
30311.284389.491
31307.700381.903
32303.096374.217
33300.122368.164
34296.421362.210
35292.481354.055
36289.265347.550
37286.409341.069
38282.991335.033
39279.546330.081
40275.624323.576
41273.130317.293
42269.545312.641
43266.898308.723
44263.623303.343
45260.682298.506
46258.185293.091
47254.217288.178
48251.044281.763
49248.444276.904
50246.144271.648
51242.652266.873
52239.764262.089
53237.473256.487
54235.235251.120
55232.390245.665
56229.524239.038
57226.970235.113
58224.177231.141
59221.843226.772
60219.333221.024
61216.067215.270
62213.231211.057
63209.749207.112
64207.293202.254
65204.497198.460
66201.633194.571
67199.299190.928
68195.970186.158
69193.009181.235
70190.451177.676
71187.540172.786
72185.063168.850
73182.258164.206
74179.790160.033
75176.067155.379
76172.826151.194
77170.081146.602
78167.286142.331
79164.689138.211
80161.585132.766
81158.227127.597
82154.768122.629
83151.460116.925
84148.326112.093
85144.388107.858
86140.467102.087
87135.31496.044
88131.54891.106
89127.81985.087
90123.17478.265
91118.08971.760
92113.79463.892
93109.07455.253
94103.45244.324
9595.12936.170
9687.68426.391
9777.19411.209
9866.1870.000
9951.0350.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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