Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10262.545416.254
20210.900312.037
30178.680255.426
40153.757209.650
50133.813174.499
60114.878141.051
7098.143113.406
8078.40085.400
9054.10852.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1432.493815.239
2377.769663.019
3348.285609.975
4326.258569.540
5307.985540.030
6295.419502.700
7287.793477.417
8278.603454.378
9269.866432.324
10262.545416.254
11255.261403.234
12248.389389.215
13242.127378.676
14236.311368.167
15232.328356.910
16227.825348.201
17224.067337.949
18220.322327.691
19215.124318.876
20210.900312.037
21206.902305.456
22204.176297.917
23200.533293.115
24197.519285.728
25194.287281.246
26191.422277.368
27187.384271.324
28184.125266.584
29181.628261.376
30178.680255.426
31175.709250.146
32172.892244.612
33170.679240.383
34167.634236.415
35165.421230.605
36163.092226.195
37160.833221.672
38158.608217.566
39156.190214.112
40153.757209.650
41152.184205.328
42149.644202.198
43148.011199.475
44146.147195.855
45144.006192.595
46142.315188.863
47139.328185.644
48137.603181.320
49135.606177.996
50133.813174.499
51131.812171.320
52129.546168.200
53127.703164.363
54125.785160.936
55123.496157.133
56121.833152.936
57120.246150.355
58118.107147.711
59116.403144.910
60114.878141.051
61113.145137.409
62111.730134.713
63110.283132.143
64108.631129.085
65107.043126.649
66105.016124.158
67103.559121.830
68101.743118.790
6999.908115.662
7098.143113.406
7196.210110.316
7294.101107.836
7392.047104.918
7490.482102.303
7588.66399.395
7686.86796.788
7784.57093.937
7882.38991.293
7980.57188.750
8078.40085.400
8176.15082.232
8273.45779.199
8371.46475.731
8469.24772.804
8566.99170.248
8664.31966.778
8761.94563.162
8859.46860.220
8957.38456.650
9054.10852.625
9151.29748.810
9247.91144.224
9343.92139.226
9440.64232.961
9536.99428.329
9632.29122.824
9728.42614.389
9822.4346.637
9913.5380.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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