Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10274.470608.426
20223.510468.415
30191.992389.491
40164.304323.576
50142.155271.648
60121.710221.024
70101.752177.676
8080.978132.766
9054.49078.265

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1449.7101101.897
2397.357919.238
3360.828854.613
4340.676804.152
5328.416768.237
6314.746720.211
7301.974687.700
8290.996658.180
9282.692629.499
10274.470608.426
11267.875591.224
12260.055572.515
13253.069558.505
14249.764544.614
15245.043529.507
16239.804517.629
17235.088503.880
18230.751490.005
19227.273477.893
20223.510468.415
21219.940459.307
22215.909449.227
23212.308442.211
24209.015432.032
25206.071425.680
26203.025420.227
27200.243411.951
28197.291405.401
29194.725397.813
30191.992389.491
31188.937381.903
32186.149374.217
33182.939368.164
34179.914362.210
35177.359354.055
36174.719347.550
37171.854341.069
38169.362335.033
39166.738330.081
40164.304323.576
41162.539317.293
42160.234312.641
43157.865308.723
44155.177303.343
45153.286298.506
46151.084293.091
47148.964288.178
48146.738281.763
49144.514276.904
50142.155271.648
51139.758266.873
52137.168262.089
53135.344256.487
54133.188251.120
55131.268245.665
56129.562239.038
57127.812235.113
58125.756231.141
59124.152226.772
60121.710221.024
61119.404215.270
62117.306211.057
63115.594207.112
64113.941202.254
65112.184198.460
66110.099194.571
67107.661190.928
68105.683186.158
69103.621181.235
70101.752177.676
71100.234172.786
7297.874168.850
7395.627164.206
7493.387160.033
7591.126155.379
7689.363151.194
7787.568146.602
7885.230142.331
7982.807138.211
8080.978132.766
8178.718127.597
8276.769122.629
8373.771116.925
8471.186112.093
8568.632107.858
8666.555102.087
8763.74296.044
8860.64891.106
8957.43485.087
9054.49078.265
9151.95271.760
9248.16663.892
9344.82355.253
9440.36644.324
9535.36836.170
9629.05926.391
9722.54811.209
9813.0660.000
990.4400.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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