Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10231.998608.426
20185.272468.415
30157.102389.491
40132.220323.576
50111.908271.648
6093.802221.024
7076.205177.676
8058.235132.766
9035.35778.265

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1390.6361101.897
2347.809919.238
3311.800854.613
4294.513804.152
5282.034768.237
6271.258720.211
7257.659687.700
8247.835658.180
9239.574629.499
10231.998608.426
11225.992591.224
12219.372572.515
13213.425558.505
14209.068544.614
15204.400529.507
16200.574517.629
17196.433503.880
18192.766490.005
19189.278477.893
20185.272468.415
21182.574459.307
22179.409449.227
23176.680442.211
24173.833432.032
25170.636425.680
26167.986420.227
27164.485411.951
28161.996405.401
29159.408397.813
30157.102389.491
31154.589381.903
32151.827374.217
33148.965368.164
34146.617362.210
35143.860354.055
36141.423347.550
37138.918341.069
38136.585335.033
39134.453330.081
40132.220323.576
41130.264317.293
42128.274312.641
43126.373308.723
44124.184303.343
45122.357298.506
46120.289293.091
47118.210288.178
48116.351281.763
49114.045276.904
50111.908271.648
51110.215266.873
52108.466262.089
53106.423256.487
54104.598251.120
55102.791245.665
56101.010239.038
5799.626235.113
5897.662231.141
5995.712226.772
6093.802221.024
6192.151215.270
6290.007211.057
6388.537207.112
6486.736202.254
6584.926198.460
6683.163194.571
6781.372190.928
6879.741186.158
6978.321181.235
7076.205177.676
7174.069172.786
7272.229168.850
7371.031164.206
7469.283160.033
7567.292155.379
7665.739151.194
7763.626146.602
7861.718142.331
7959.858138.211
8058.235132.766
8156.295127.597
8254.245122.629
8352.111116.925
8449.583112.093
8547.163107.858
8645.159102.087
8742.70496.044
8840.89891.106
8937.93785.087
9035.35778.265
9132.70271.760
9229.88963.892
9327.15355.253
9422.17244.324
9517.90236.170
9613.09926.391
976.35411.209
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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