Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10163.940416.254
20125.777312.037
30103.695255.426
4085.604209.650
5071.831174.499
6059.559141.051
7046.676113.406
8033.70985.400
9017.69552.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1293.188815.239
2250.078663.019
3227.649609.975
4212.786569.540
5203.418540.030
6191.828502.700
7182.585477.417
8175.885454.378
9168.780432.324
10163.940416.254
11158.942403.234
12154.994389.215
13150.833378.676
14147.107368.167
15143.313356.910
16139.005348.201
17135.193337.949
18131.843327.691
19129.083318.876
20125.777312.037
21123.327305.456
22120.839297.917
23117.955293.115
24115.492285.728
25113.226281.246
26111.438277.368
27109.763271.324
28107.961266.584
29105.819261.376
30103.695255.426
31101.783250.146
3299.624244.612
3397.776240.383
3495.643236.415
3593.993230.605
3692.262226.195
3790.339221.672
3888.816217.566
3987.512214.112
4085.604209.650
4183.868205.328
4282.583202.198
4381.400199.475
4480.292195.855
4578.944192.595
4677.058188.863
4776.001185.644
4874.496181.320
4973.090177.996
5071.831174.499
5170.647171.320
5269.473168.200
5368.058164.363
5466.913160.936
5565.456157.133
5664.276152.936
5763.067150.355
5861.712147.711
5960.625144.910
6059.559141.051
6158.449137.409
6257.274134.713
6355.658132.143
6454.750129.085
6553.482126.649
6652.251124.158
6750.769121.830
6849.405118.790
6948.016115.662
7046.676113.406
7145.488110.316
7244.305107.836
7343.359104.918
7442.013102.303
7540.48099.395
7639.16196.788
7737.91393.937
7836.42791.293
7935.18788.750
8033.70985.400
8132.14982.232
8230.37779.199
8329.27275.731
8427.91872.804
8526.25170.248
8624.95366.778
8723.28663.162
8821.65160.220
8919.44056.650
9017.69552.625
9116.07048.810
9214.49144.224
9312.31239.226
9410.30332.961
957.48828.329
963.93522.824
970.00014.389
980.0006.637
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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