Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10159.856385.331
20126.456278.855
30104.704223.728
4088.660180.575
5074.240148.528
6062.710119.027
7050.62695.198
8037.55071.978
9022.02445.930

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1280.342838.495
2242.881657.589
3219.861597.161
4205.974551.330
5194.923519.449
6184.749477.797
7177.455450.250
8170.043425.698
9166.250402.272
10159.856385.331
11155.794371.676
12152.249357.003
13148.098346.139
14143.885335.472
15140.741323.990
16137.672315.051
17134.750304.802
18131.913294.565
19128.659285.720
20126.456278.855
21124.082272.308
22121.605265.116
23119.326260.146
24116.657252.986
25114.632248.549
26112.420244.759
27110.356239.040
28108.107234.544
29106.661229.366
30104.704223.728
31103.120218.623
32101.604213.489
3399.769209.470
3498.059205.539
3596.378200.192
3694.858195.956
3793.213191.762
3891.884187.880
3990.170184.712
4088.660180.575
4187.025176.604
4285.284173.680
4383.819171.229
4482.172167.879
4581.013164.883
4679.757161.547
4778.464158.538
4877.061154.632
4975.680151.691
5074.240148.528
5173.283145.671
5272.330142.824
5371.190139.509
5469.693136.354
5568.323133.167
5667.389129.323
5766.195127.060
5865.133124.781
5963.840122.288
6062.710119.027
6161.495115.786
6260.277113.429
6359.321111.232
6458.137108.543
6556.541106.454
6655.360104.324
6754.191102.338
6853.16299.753
6951.81297.103
7050.62695.198
7149.22692.596
7248.12390.514
7346.95888.074
7445.37685.894
7543.69483.478
7642.45781.320
7741.28078.968
7839.90776.794
7938.72474.711
8037.55071.978
8136.06569.405
8234.90866.952
8333.58164.160
8432.21761.814
8530.71159.775
8629.53457.018
8727.70054.161
8825.87051.848
8923.81449.057
9022.02445.930
9119.95542.984
9217.74039.471
9315.13835.674
9413.08830.966
9510.36827.522
966.96423.472
972.79717.360
980.00011.848
990.0005.033


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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