Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101343.8631288.327
201019.814898.122
30839.216708.040
40694.612566.014
50584.513464.945
60490.124375.672
70410.202306.546
80322.532242.108
90236.874173.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12486.1603183.375
22145.9212390.284
31971.5322135.001
41782.8071945.095
51684.8321815.018
61592.0581647.750
71512.7131538.885
81461.0531443.104
91404.7261352.860
101343.8631288.327
111304.6881236.769
121261.5981181.836
131221.3311141.486
141178.3421102.141
151148.8081060.104
161118.3321027.603
171088.273990.589
181059.693953.893
191040.900922.409
201019.814898.122
211002.493875.081
22979.275849.912
23964.681832.605
24943.769807.798
25926.681792.502
26905.715779.482
27885.357759.919
28871.808744.609
29853.218727.057
30839.216708.040
31818.728690.910
32802.765673.768
33788.060660.413
34772.089647.401
35759.295629.784
36747.029615.899
37729.270602.212
38718.907589.600
39706.753579.347
40694.612566.014
41683.846553.276
42671.972543.935
43660.796536.127
44646.863525.496
45635.879516.023
46624.762505.519
47613.359496.079
48604.529483.880
49593.206474.739
50584.513464.945
51575.080456.133
52564.081447.387
53555.698437.247
54546.258427.640
55538.091417.980
56528.856406.387
57518.543399.596
58508.430392.778
59497.660385.346
60490.124375.672
61482.062366.106
62474.722359.178
63464.165352.749
64458.719344.908
65450.420338.845
66442.010332.682
67433.070326.958
68425.867319.539
69417.746311.966
70410.202306.546
71400.911299.175
72393.186293.304
73384.569286.451
74375.765280.358
75367.886273.637
76359.452267.662
77349.750261.179
78340.178255.217
79332.532249.530
80322.532242.108
81314.180235.162
82305.529228.579
83296.314221.133
84288.445214.916
85279.921209.540
86271.664202.318
87262.591194.888
88254.420188.916
89243.163181.758
90236.874173.806
91226.206166.384
92215.650157.616
93201.537148.253
94190.939136.806
95176.262128.554
96160.106118.986
97142.696104.840
98121.61492.407
99100.08477.494


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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