Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102254.6272457.056
201891.9041869.580
301634.8921549.665
401442.3291290.488
501274.6731091.125
601123.399901.104
70978.156743.780
80818.999584.114
90621.401396.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13522.6244693.807
23180.3603842.345
32864.4743545.133
42725.5183318.385
52609.2793152.783
62528.6782943.160
72438.8872801.090
82356.9592671.557
92301.1842547.495
102254.6272457.056
112214.4992383.756
122165.9002304.801
132127.6402245.425
142087.7902186.204
152050.6872122.745
162017.3232073.637
171976.8032015.812
181946.2241957.942
191918.6511908.192
201891.9041869.580
211864.1971832.422
221834.8311789.845
231808.6471762.723
241780.6151720.982
251755.3761695.655
261734.6191673.735
271707.6411639.571
281684.6571612.774
291660.7291583.324
301634.8921549.665
311610.7191519.796
321588.3331488.481
331569.0131464.548
341552.9411442.088
351529.7821409.197
361513.2281384.220
371491.4011358.602
381473.5361335.342
391458.7931315.776
401442.3291290.488
411423.9281265.993
421409.0011248.250
431395.0311232.812
441376.4001212.288
451360.3711193.802
461341.0341172.632
471325.5891154.371
481308.5941129.838
491292.7611110.972
501274.6731091.125
511258.8501073.078
521247.8431055.363
531230.9791033.578
541212.1491014.110
551195.441992.506
561183.137968.660
571165.796953.997
581152.031938.964
591137.609923.044
601123.399901.104
611109.538880.389
621093.486865.058
631078.777850.436
641062.925833.034
651049.102819.175
661036.160804.998
671023.992791.745
681006.391774.438
69991.724756.625
70978.156743.780
71963.488726.178
72948.089712.044
73932.698695.417
74919.355680.514
75906.048663.938
76886.127649.077
77870.902632.817
78853.298617.734
79836.490603.226
80818.999584.114
81799.571566.033
82782.809548.719
83761.935528.913
84743.196512.193
85723.956497.593
86704.112477.764
87686.388457.095
88662.597440.274
89642.563419.856
90621.401396.830
91594.627374.993
92569.088348.735
93542.172320.105
94511.759284.195
95483.181257.632
96432.401226.044
97391.274177.603
98342.653133.032
99261.35976.589


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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