Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile55.67883.482
Median89.524148.528
Mean101.541191.574
75% Quartile134.333248.547
Interquartile Range78.655165.065

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1313.090838.495
2273.362657.589
3248.326597.161
4235.538551.330
5221.403519.449
6211.618477.797
7202.799450.250
8195.627425.698
9189.015402.272
10183.815385.331
11179.268371.676
12175.835357.003
13171.256346.139
14166.829335.472
15162.918323.990
16159.406315.051
17155.929304.802
18153.185294.565
19149.523285.720
20147.070278.855
21144.836272.308
22142.190265.116
23139.760260.146
24136.908252.986
25134.345248.549
26131.372244.759
27128.964239.040
28127.072234.544
29125.285229.366
30123.248223.728
31121.587218.623
32119.685213.489
33117.699209.470
34116.025205.539
35114.106200.192
36112.126195.956
37110.553191.762
38108.954187.880
39106.747184.712
40105.239180.575
41103.418176.604
42101.999173.680
4399.637171.229
4498.247167.879
4596.742164.883
4695.452161.547
4793.764158.538
4892.252154.632
4990.827151.691
5089.524148.528
5188.241145.671
5287.267142.824
5385.944139.509
5484.430136.354
5583.138133.167
5681.728129.323
5780.286127.060
5878.953124.781
5977.678122.288
6076.409119.027
6175.193115.786
6273.857113.429
6372.723111.232
6471.143108.543
6570.200106.454
6668.784104.324
6767.253102.338
6866.14699.753
6964.70197.103
7063.18395.198
7161.81792.596
7260.27290.514
7358.98288.074
7457.23085.894
7555.64383.478
7654.12381.320
7752.93778.968
7851.08176.794
7949.84374.711
8048.45871.978
8147.23469.405
8245.99566.952
8344.34364.160
8442.63461.814
8540.94459.775
8639.06157.018
8737.27354.161
8835.55051.848
8933.28649.057
9031.41645.930
9129.02542.984
9226.62639.471
9324.67935.674
9421.51030.966
9518.63627.522
9615.40423.472
9710.87517.360
984.68911.848
990.0005.033


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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