Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile79.056101.109
Median127.661174.410
Mean150.082241.788
75% Quartile194.661299.836
Interquartile Range115.605198.728

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1520.9891219.990
2429.646913.125
3389.499814.793
4358.562741.757
5340.722691.779
6322.555627.563
7309.122585.797
8298.536549.067
9289.024514.472
10278.675489.740
11269.489469.984
12260.587448.938
13254.282433.481
14248.275418.410
15241.038402.310
16234.334389.863
17229.423375.688
18225.412361.636
19220.698349.580
20215.855340.280
21211.292331.458
22206.789321.821
23203.103315.194
24198.678305.696
25194.710299.839
26191.003294.854
27187.483287.364
28185.328281.502
29181.586274.782
30178.076267.500
31175.454260.942
32172.997254.378
33169.979249.265
34166.950244.282
35164.417237.537
36161.615232.220
37159.129226.979
38156.577222.149
39154.107218.223
40150.767213.118
41148.693208.240
42146.211204.662
43143.914201.672
44141.257197.601
45139.089193.973
46136.630189.950
47134.277186.334
48132.165181.662
49129.673178.161
50127.661174.410
51125.542171.034
52123.369167.684
53121.077163.800
54119.087160.120
55117.455156.419
56115.073151.978
57113.203149.376
58111.351146.764
59109.841143.917
60108.081140.210
61106.158136.545
62104.711133.890
63102.809131.426
64100.833128.422
6598.489126.098
6696.837123.737
6794.836121.543
6893.010118.699
6991.384115.797
7089.505113.720
7187.792110.894
7286.049108.644
7383.994106.017
7481.904103.681
7579.053101.104
7677.27598.814
7775.18996.328
7873.87794.042
7971.38691.862
8069.51689.016
8167.50186.352
8265.32283.828
8363.60080.972
8461.18478.588
8559.17176.526
8656.80673.755
8754.27370.905
8851.62668.614
8949.04065.867
9046.41862.816
9143.75559.968
9240.14456.603
9336.96853.010
9433.28448.615
9529.00845.447
9624.41341.773
9720.63236.340
9812.94931.564
994.20825.833


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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