Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1106.701718.757
Median1536.7811264.721
Mean1635.4241400.527
75% Quartile2073.1751940.689
Interquartile Range966.4741221.932

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13721.5763886.389
23393.8173477.631
33200.5413317.307
43029.9743185.409
52949.9473087.615
62868.7652951.330
72786.7782855.230
82718.8712765.094
92659.3122674.749
102616.3752606.536
112566.9942549.662
122515.9192486.541
132481.9162438.389
142436.9762389.877
152386.4712336.228
162344.9462293.379
172300.4812243.033
182271.0342191.390
192244.4152145.625
202213.1752109.349
212182.2372074.111
222150.8212034.666
232124.0502006.939
242097.3991966.304
252073.4231940.702
262042.3091918.573
272009.2451884.721
281988.7651857.706
291968.7751826.154
301946.5431791.240
311924.4891759.122
321907.9571726.323
331888.5901700.299
341857.7621674.535
351833.9641638.993
361806.7811610.430
371788.3541581.784
381768.7141554.945
391742.3021532.810
401721.3911503.586
411700.1631475.192
421682.9971454.071
431663.0601436.218
441644.2571411.615
451625.1821389.400
461607.5431364.444
471588.0831341.718
481571.9291311.927
491552.4951289.285
501536.7811264.721
511515.7401242.346
521498.2571219.878
531484.0091193.503
541467.5931168.187
551452.0901142.409
561436.2391111.042
571415.5641092.448
581403.5611073.618
591385.9351052.903
601368.3971025.646
611356.699998.369
621339.734978.414
631321.445959.744
641305.373936.780
651286.411918.876
661266.387900.551
671250.917883.416
681229.639861.038
691210.095838.012
701191.739821.419
711174.210798.702
721158.642780.485
731142.352759.091
741124.000739.955
751106.692718.723
761088.122699.743
771071.900679.045
781051.935659.917
791035.185641.590
801010.907617.567
81991.852594.980
82971.659573.489
83952.375549.089
84931.190528.656
85908.513510.946
86886.618487.104
87862.711462.531
88837.026442.757
89810.659419.041
90784.534392.694
91756.387368.125
92724.470339.152
93688.630308.313
94650.213270.813
95609.826243.968
96569.002213.087
97510.522168.048
98461.206129.216
99368.98583.819


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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