Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile581.378447.722
Median790.174845.301
Mean841.833876.224
75% Quartile1060.5541246.986
Interquartile Range479.175799.263

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11846.5382298.386
21706.2712080.591
31617.6001995.013
41564.5901924.511
51492.6871872.168
61451.1771799.100
71406.9801747.471
81372.1841698.953
91333.5331650.214
101312.4361613.334
111293.3471582.521
121269.9571548.250
131248.0381522.051
141227.4161495.599
151204.9521466.276
161187.3441442.799
171171.5651415.143
181158.1031386.687
191140.4191361.388
201125.8001341.278
211111.1721321.690
221100.6391299.696
231087.8251284.192
241073.7391261.399
251060.6971246.993
261047.9931234.511
271039.1771215.359
281026.3551200.023
291013.0681182.050
30998.8541162.082
31986.3131143.631
32974.0481124.704
33962.3441109.621
34952.1861094.631
35941.1971073.848
36930.5171057.054
37919.5001040.125
38909.0931024.182
39895.8811010.970
40881.893993.433
41871.196976.289
42861.052963.465
43850.778952.575
44840.764937.490
45830.218923.790
46821.755908.303
47814.564894.107
48807.398875.358
49799.775860.996
50790.174845.301
51781.820830.894
52771.575816.317
53764.275799.058
54754.945782.334
55746.887765.136
56740.502743.968
57734.173731.287
58727.361718.339
59717.971703.969
60709.372684.845
61702.369665.451
62695.068651.091
63687.598637.518
64681.334620.633
65670.895607.316
66664.510593.542
67655.580580.525
68647.405563.318
69639.269545.357
70629.195532.246
71621.942514.059
72613.325499.270
73602.578481.660
74592.366465.681
75581.376447.693
76572.153431.377
77565.151413.326
78554.303396.403
79546.457379.973
80534.367358.122
81523.659337.268
82512.790317.172
83504.208294.101
84495.332274.627
85482.776257.683
86469.728234.873
87459.967211.519
88447.381192.984
89436.669171.252
90423.890148.031
91410.223127.542
92396.846105.181
93380.42583.868
94361.44061.724
95333.50448.450
96314.20435.731
97294.33221.613
98269.56813.060
99227.2906.461


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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