Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile134.067160.251
Median205.185266.258
Mean247.169357.686
75% Quartile313.789443.795
Interquartile Range179.722283.544

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1882.4391689.653
2715.6341280.992
3652.2091148.923
4597.7051050.412
5563.340982.776
6535.108895.579
7509.144838.673
8488.989788.494
9468.071741.108
10455.413707.153
11437.833679.981
12422.250650.983
13409.823629.651
14396.438608.823
15386.579586.539
16379.082569.286
17370.359549.612
18361.833530.079
19351.860513.297
20343.380500.335
21336.993488.025
22330.763474.564
23324.573465.299
24317.609452.005
25313.817443.799
26307.991436.810
27302.466426.299
28297.275418.065
29291.418408.618
30286.031398.371
31280.714389.132
32275.238379.877
33269.850372.660
34265.155365.622
35260.676356.084
36256.286348.559
37252.109341.135
38248.416334.287
39244.664328.717
40240.808321.466
41237.391314.532
42233.814309.443
43230.144305.187
44226.515299.387
45223.611294.215
46219.330288.476
47215.387283.313
48211.983276.636
49208.105271.628
50205.185266.258
51201.544261.423
52198.584256.619
53195.575251.045
54192.586245.759
55189.476240.439
56186.784234.048
57184.070230.300
58181.403226.535
59178.673222.428
60175.984217.076
61172.927211.779
62169.679207.939
63166.239204.372
64163.806200.019
65161.330196.650
66158.375193.223
67155.442190.038
68152.510185.905
69150.218181.683
70148.019178.659
71145.197174.542
72142.376171.259
73138.752167.425
74136.695164.012
75134.026160.245
76130.291156.891
77127.243153.250
78124.687149.898
79122.065146.697
80119.796142.515
81117.167138.596
82114.318134.878
83111.348130.666
84107.721127.145
85104.644124.097
86101.023119.997
8797.665115.773
8894.155112.373
8990.807108.291
9087.061103.748
9184.15299.500
9280.32994.472
9375.79389.089
9470.45682.488
9565.18877.716
9659.14572.165
9753.42863.924
9845.74856.642
9935.95247.851


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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