Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul356.307315.36332.911198.1411605.596
Jul-Aug835.825894.54151.718498.8732686.964
Jul-Sep1303.3791226.75768.173831.7603582.619

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102261.8602457.056
201897.4431869.580
301640.3201549.665
401446.8091290.488
501278.7911091.125
601127.168901.104
70981.792743.780
80822.247584.114
90624.339396.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13531.0944693.807
23188.6843842.345
32872.5473545.133
42734.1443318.385
52616.7043152.783
62535.3842943.160
72444.8682801.090
82364.3182671.557
92308.1432547.495
102261.8602457.056
112220.4452383.756
122172.5312304.801
132134.4332245.425
142094.6772186.204
152056.8582122.745
162023.9442073.637
171982.5142015.812
181951.8811957.942
191924.8531908.192
201897.4431869.580
211869.8361832.422
221841.0741789.845
231813.8371762.723
241786.1001720.982
251760.7631695.655
261740.4681673.735
271712.7991639.571
281690.4271612.774
291665.8351583.324
301640.3201549.665
311616.1901519.796
321593.5591488.481
331574.0791464.548
341557.7891442.088
351534.8001409.197
361517.9751384.220
371496.8471358.602
381478.7221335.342
391463.4571315.776
401446.8091290.488
411428.9511265.993
421413.7811248.250
431399.8921232.812
441381.0871212.288
451365.2351193.802
461345.5311172.632
471329.9171154.371
481313.2011129.838
491297.3431110.972
501278.7911091.125
511263.0131073.078
521252.1721055.363
531235.1661033.578
541216.4661014.110
551199.572992.506
561186.961968.660
571170.284953.997
581156.207938.964
591141.512923.044
601127.168901.104
611113.637880.389
621097.597865.058
631082.797850.436
641066.844833.034
651053.042819.175
661040.047804.998
671027.747791.745
681010.209774.438
69995.202756.625
70981.792743.780
71967.036726.178
72951.686712.044
73936.456695.417
74923.215680.514
75909.162663.938
76889.610649.077
77874.314632.817
78856.776617.734
79839.805603.226
80822.247584.114
81803.238566.033
82785.746548.719
83764.742528.913
84746.227512.193
85726.762497.593
86706.962477.764
87689.479457.095
88665.541440.274
89645.283419.856
90624.339396.830
91597.514374.993
92571.855348.735
93544.730320.105
94514.147284.195
95485.547257.632
96434.416226.044
97393.705177.603
98344.292133.032
99263.35576.589


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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