Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug479.518579.17818.806300.7311129.559
Aug-Sep947.072911.39535.262633.6192220.331
Aug-Oct1402.0791085.66536.437871.1553704.861

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102406.0042606.536
202036.4162109.349
301794.0541791.240
401573.6901503.586
501403.6051264.721
601240.2371025.646
701079.741821.419
80903.466617.567
90699.312392.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13437.3463886.389
23143.9053477.631
32973.4543317.307
42820.7803185.409
52730.7033087.615
62646.5522951.330
72580.3702855.230
82516.3852765.094
92455.7932674.749
102406.0042606.536
112366.2112549.662
122318.4652486.541
132275.9342438.389
142235.9812389.877
152195.6462336.228
162166.3212293.379
172125.9702243.033
182092.4842191.390
192064.7352145.625
202036.4162109.349
212007.9742074.111
221980.6102034.666
231954.6902006.939
241934.8471966.304
251913.7461940.702
261888.8471918.573
271866.0611884.721
281843.9981857.706
291820.0751826.154
301794.0541791.240
311766.1381759.122
321743.5351726.323
331723.0591700.299
341699.8771674.535
351676.9601638.993
361650.7331610.430
371628.3991581.784
381609.3141554.945
391591.0161532.810
401573.6901503.586
411556.3051475.192
421536.4951454.071
431519.8431436.218
441498.5341411.615
451482.0171389.400
461466.2091364.444
471449.0251341.718
481431.1081311.927
491416.3941289.285
501403.6051264.721
511384.5691242.346
521369.9331219.878
531351.6001193.503
541338.1321168.187
551325.2761142.409
561309.7241111.042
571287.5811092.448
581271.3541073.618
591253.5931052.903
601240.2371025.646
611227.844998.369
621212.388978.414
631197.310959.744
641181.809936.780
651167.039918.876
661153.161900.551
671135.741883.416
681117.518861.038
691100.550838.012
701079.741821.419
711064.912798.702
721046.566780.485
731028.597759.091
741014.932739.955
75992.102718.723
76973.981699.743
77956.248679.045
78939.805659.917
79926.508641.590
80903.466617.567
81886.968594.980
82869.452573.489
83847.162549.089
84826.305528.656
85811.148510.946
86788.013487.104
87766.259462.531
88747.928442.757
89720.612419.041
90699.312392.694
91672.026368.125
92644.512339.152
93616.725308.313
94570.650270.813
95539.413243.968
96496.445213.087
97444.226168.048
98388.295129.216
99314.81583.819


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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