Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep471.440289.461361.96316.456316.4801090.771
Sep-Oct934.385579.735605.56117.631552.0762575.301
Sep-Nov1193.556802.083799.94017.631694.8583139.493

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101624.8972188.995
201388.5191782.073
301227.9481519.971
401100.1011281.072
50992.9061080.814
60896.485878.249
70800.026703.350
80691.950527.202
90554.858331.860

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12416.4283230.326
22143.6552898.200
31990.1812767.858
41908.8032660.580
51839.1032581.009
61782.8912470.065
71721.3402391.788
81678.7412318.328
91652.9032244.653
101624.8972188.995
111588.8352142.563
121563.2052091.001
131541.6082051.646
141520.4322011.975
151492.7291968.076
161464.1471932.994
171444.4451891.747
181423.6721849.407
191407.2391811.857
201388.5191782.073
211369.2821753.124
221353.7381720.695
231338.7101697.886
241318.0381664.434
251305.5601643.345
261286.9141625.105
271271.7271597.186
281259.5291574.890
291242.8951548.830
301227.9481519.971
311215.6551493.399
321202.1981466.240
331186.2961444.671
341172.7221423.304
351156.4931393.798
361143.1351370.060
371131.0541346.234
381121.4411323.889
391110.1781305.445
401100.1011281.072
411089.6721257.367
421078.1371239.716
431067.4931224.786
441053.6761204.195
451044.4781185.584
461034.6551164.657
471024.3841145.581
481013.4811120.547
491002.4371101.500
50992.9061080.814
51984.0821061.951
52973.6761042.992
53964.3701020.710
54955.527999.297
55946.872977.468
56936.659950.869
57928.112935.082
58919.261919.081
59909.566901.461
60896.485878.249
61887.830854.989
62877.757837.953
63868.765821.999
64859.082802.356
65849.212787.026
66838.413771.322
67828.901756.624
68820.254737.413
69810.251717.624
70800.026703.350
71791.301683.792
72781.662668.094
73774.912649.642
74764.993633.124
75753.804614.782
76741.867598.373
77730.795580.465
78718.551563.904
79704.389548.028
80691.950527.202
81676.523507.610
82665.477488.957
83653.620467.770
84639.485450.021
85629.204434.632
86616.607413.912
87603.875392.553
88589.797375.365
89572.157354.753
90554.858331.860
91540.695310.521
92526.226285.373
93505.265258.633
94485.584226.168
95463.193202.969
96435.199176.339
97408.472137.630
98364.883104.414
99311.58565.820


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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