Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam( )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov254.76998.76035.4360.000115.491349.715
Nov-Dec413.142177.11858.2070.000244.6491043.498
Nov-Jan508.749216.36065.2720.000291.6761261.292

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10411.999928.477
20317.732746.638
30257.596637.499
40205.311541.911
50164.250463.293
60126.973383.396
7093.076312.037
8058.741234.777
9025.894135.573

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1639.7521485.571
2568.6981291.683
3525.3891219.964
4496.8451162.694
5478.8331121.211
6463.8321064.744
7450.9661025.838
8438.444990.009
9425.262954.720
10411.999928.477
11399.902906.853
12386.582883.118
13375.766865.196
14366.783847.295
15355.256827.676
16346.892812.137
17338.265794.022
18330.695775.598
19325.044759.397
20317.732746.638
21310.272734.312
22304.097720.590
23297.357710.991
24290.593696.991
25283.419688.209
26278.703680.643
27273.409669.109
28267.851659.939
29262.579649.265
30257.596637.499
31251.723626.713
32245.282615.734
33239.989607.047
34234.703598.466
35230.207586.657
36224.394577.188
37218.604567.711
38214.441558.845
39210.377551.542
40205.311541.911
41200.159532.563
42195.586525.614
43191.602519.742
44187.508511.651
45182.807504.347
46178.815496.140
47175.385488.664
48171.622478.857
49168.266471.396
50164.250463.293
51161.148455.901
52157.487448.467
53154.052439.723
54149.619431.309
55146.067422.717
56142.560412.224
57137.915405.982
58134.529399.643
59131.405392.645
60126.973383.396
61123.187374.089
62120.246367.244
63116.833360.811
64113.158352.855
65109.816346.618
66106.344340.200
67103.307334.165
6899.824326.234
6996.731318.009
7093.076312.037
7189.528303.800
7286.520297.138
7382.937289.246
7478.633282.120
7575.405274.136
7672.632266.925
7769.328258.975
7865.562251.544
7962.252244.344
8058.741234.777
8155.701225.641
8252.423216.810
8349.285206.609
8446.170197.912
8543.286190.251
8639.139179.745
8735.406168.667
8832.353159.551
8928.974148.362
9025.894135.573
9122.051123.272
9218.044108.248
9314.30091.561
9410.68770.153
957.00153.951
963.25734.250
970.3833.043
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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