Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec156.810166.18061.9370.000119.472481.460
Dec-Jan251.559243.42490.5830.000161.177617.600
Dec-Feb320.511326.725126.1100.000243.4621208.941

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10422.485608.426
20353.264468.415
30312.248389.491
40276.660323.576
50246.982271.648
60220.212221.024
70191.213177.676
80162.288132.766
90123.69278.265

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1634.9131101.897
2569.238919.238
3530.858854.613
4510.196804.152
5486.163768.237
6470.939720.211
7458.863687.700
8446.032658.180
9435.313629.499
10422.485608.426
11412.981591.224
12405.049572.515
13396.762558.505
14388.766544.614
15382.007529.507
16375.840517.629
17368.730503.880
18363.539490.005
19357.808477.893
20353.264468.415
21349.269459.307
22345.406449.227
23340.855442.211
24335.906432.032
25332.094425.680
26327.568420.227
27323.608411.951
28320.154405.401
29316.584397.813
30312.248389.491
31308.614381.903
32304.066374.217
33300.946368.164
34297.421362.210
35293.493354.055
36290.149347.550
37287.316341.069
38283.876335.033
39280.521330.081
40276.660323.576
41274.083317.293
42270.513312.641
43267.754308.723
44264.594303.343
45261.708298.506
46259.059293.091
47255.118288.178
48251.966281.763
49249.263276.904
50246.982271.648
51243.549266.873
52240.621262.089
53238.342256.487
54236.002251.120
55233.163245.665
56230.388239.038
57227.811235.113
58224.983231.141
59222.628226.772
60220.212221.024
61216.814215.270
62213.992211.057
63210.538207.112
64208.174202.254
65205.280198.460
66202.458194.571
67200.103190.928
68196.624186.158
69193.805181.235
70191.213177.676
71188.248172.786
72185.677168.850
73182.969164.206
74180.565160.033
75176.827155.379
76173.502151.194
77170.893146.602
78167.957142.331
79165.412138.211
80162.288132.766
81158.877127.597
82155.517122.629
83152.051116.925
84149.034112.093
85145.069107.858
86141.035102.087
87135.87596.044
88132.18391.106
89128.40485.087
90123.69278.265
91118.73071.760
92114.37163.892
93109.57555.253
94104.02644.324
9595.62236.170
9688.20526.391
9777.73711.209
9866.5680.000
9951.5080.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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