Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr75.603133.23624.3906.52935.409708.766
Apr-May188.126263.249106.63124.00680.5551596.193
Apr-Jun374.937438.705310.84649.308160.1082871.502

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10647.316707.153
20498.262500.335
30414.379398.371
40352.164321.466
50301.564266.258
60258.272217.076
70218.664178.659
80177.738142.515
90132.477103.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11229.3411689.653
21014.6481280.992
3924.7171148.923
4859.4001050.412
5799.854982.776
6760.699895.579
7726.755838.673
8698.701788.494
9670.725741.108
10647.316707.153
11623.871679.981
12603.527650.983
13585.099629.651
14570.954608.823
15557.596586.539
16545.107569.286
17532.791549.612
18519.691530.079
19509.152513.297
20498.262500.335
21488.534488.025
22478.757474.564
23470.109465.299
24461.207452.005
25454.021443.799
26446.522436.810
27439.030426.299
28431.793418.065
29423.616408.618
30414.379398.371
31406.112389.132
32397.688379.877
33390.957372.660
34385.589365.622
35379.629356.084
36372.885348.559
37367.242341.135
38363.274334.287
39357.866328.717
40352.164321.466
41347.538314.532
42341.484309.443
43335.273305.187
44329.865299.387
45325.072294.215
46319.838288.476
47314.042283.313
48310.069276.636
49305.653271.628
50301.564266.258
51297.183261.423
52292.420256.619
53287.661251.045
54283.189245.759
55279.749240.439
56275.346234.048
57270.494230.300
58266.451226.535
59262.560222.428
60258.272217.076
61254.035211.779
62249.907207.939
63245.984204.372
64241.800200.019
65238.033196.650
66233.482193.223
67229.677190.038
68225.248185.905
69221.738181.683
70218.664178.659
71214.458174.542
72210.779171.259
73207.704167.425
74202.944164.012
75198.885160.245
76194.169156.891
77190.375153.250
78186.694149.898
79181.677146.697
80177.738142.515
81173.555138.596
82170.462134.878
83166.015130.666
84161.881127.145
85157.586124.097
86152.434119.997
87147.996115.773
88143.537112.373
89137.818108.291
90132.477103.748
91127.26799.500
92122.83994.472
93115.75889.089
94109.79182.488
95101.10677.716
9692.18472.165
9784.11863.924
9873.86356.642
9959.52647.851


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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