Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May112.523130.01382.24238.78845.147887.427
May-Jun299.333305.469286.45774.050124.6992162.736
May-Jul656.302729.011601.819106.961303.8373768.332

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10907.4231288.327
20674.137898.122
30549.920708.040
40451.638566.014
50377.515464.945
60313.552375.672
70260.842306.546
80205.047242.108
90146.272173.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11787.0173183.375
21528.8992390.284
31377.1962135.001
41245.3591945.095
51156.0831815.018
61083.5751647.750
71030.9301538.885
8991.0621443.104
9946.3201352.860
10907.4231288.327
11870.7671236.769
12846.7561181.836
13815.5391141.486
14794.6031102.141
15770.1371060.104
16740.9181027.603
17725.133990.589
18708.776953.893
19690.076922.409
20674.137898.122
21658.385875.081
22645.258849.912
23633.380832.605
24622.155807.798
25606.705792.502
26592.694779.482
27580.456759.919
28568.841744.609
29559.518727.057
30549.920708.040
31536.343690.910
32524.802673.768
33514.626660.413
34504.394647.401
35494.896629.784
36486.795615.899
37475.774602.212
38467.100589.600
39460.532579.347
40451.638566.014
41443.197553.276
42434.058543.935
43424.807536.127
44417.991525.496
45410.174516.023
46403.337505.519
47396.204496.079
48388.627483.880
49382.913474.739
50377.515464.945
51371.276456.133
52364.596447.387
53358.159437.247
54351.208427.640
55344.226417.980
56337.395406.387
57332.975399.596
58326.423392.778
59320.364385.346
60313.552375.672
61308.095366.106
62302.876359.178
63298.660352.749
64293.304344.908
65288.879338.845
66283.273332.682
67277.519326.958
68272.008319.539
69266.283311.966
70260.842306.546
71256.317299.175
72250.292293.304
73244.996286.451
74238.855280.358
75231.856273.637
76227.565267.662
77221.114261.179
78215.014255.217
79209.477249.530
80205.047242.108
81199.205235.162
82194.079228.579
83187.108221.133
84179.624214.916
85174.396209.540
86169.618202.318
87163.605194.888
88158.935188.916
89153.566181.758
90146.272173.806
91139.841166.384
92133.584157.616
93125.732148.253
94116.128136.806
95107.637128.554
9695.468118.986
9785.019104.840
9873.21892.407
9958.24077.494


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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