Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul356.968423.542315.36332.911179.1381605.596
Jul-Aug834.904845.267894.54151.718471.6692686.964
Jul-Sep1304.6071207.2301226.75768.173808.3603582.619

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102241.8002457.056
201880.7081869.580
301625.7121549.665
401433.7161290.488
501266.7671091.125
601116.026901.104
70971.683743.780
80813.143584.114
90616.632396.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13507.6014693.807
23165.6223842.345
32850.1413545.133
42713.3703318.385
52595.0993152.783
62515.9382943.160
72426.5832801.090
82343.9722671.557
92289.7452547.495
102241.8002457.056
112203.4612383.756
122154.1802304.801
132115.6112245.425
142076.4462186.204
152038.6262122.745
162005.9792073.637
171966.5252015.812
181934.5921957.942
191908.5051908.192
201880.7081869.580
211853.8141832.422
221823.6221789.845
231798.1151762.723
241770.8211720.982
251745.8771695.655
261724.5631673.735
271698.6241639.571
281675.3401612.774
291651.3021583.324
301625.7121549.665
311600.9981519.796
321579.4901488.481
331559.9961464.548
341543.9601442.088
351521.1611409.197
361504.4051384.220
371483.4061358.602
381464.7451335.342
391450.8941315.776
401433.7161290.488
411415.6521265.993
421400.6311248.250
431386.4831232.812
441368.1071212.288
451352.0731193.802
461332.7161172.632
471317.9171154.371
481300.4391129.838
491285.0191110.972
501266.7671091.125
511250.9351073.078
521240.3521055.363
531223.4081033.578
541204.1551014.110
551188.408992.506
561175.849968.660
571157.964953.997
581144.401938.964
591130.334923.044
601116.026901.104
611102.794880.389
621086.777865.058
631071.686850.436
641055.547833.034
651042.370819.175
661029.188804.998
671017.686791.745
68999.586774.438
69985.643756.625
70971.683743.780
71957.214726.178
72941.611712.044
73926.549695.417
74912.948680.514
75900.538663.938
76880.184649.077
77864.706632.817
78847.551617.734
79830.634603.226
80813.143584.114
81793.880566.033
82777.210548.719
83756.987528.913
84737.822512.193
85718.197497.593
86698.927477.764
87680.496457.095
88657.548440.274
89637.237419.856
90616.632396.830
91589.515374.993
92564.300348.735
93537.643320.105
94507.521284.195
95478.990257.632
96428.833226.044
97386.968177.603
98339.746133.032
99257.82176.589


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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