Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug477.936421.725585.73918.806292.5331129.559
Aug-Sep947.639783.688924.73735.262629.2242220.331
Aug-Oct1407.1011027.2861069.41036.437880.1293704.861

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102618.2612606.536
202214.8002109.349
301947.8551791.240
401723.0321503.586
501538.4991264.721
601369.9321025.646
701192.971821.419
801012.113617.567
90785.599392.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13724.7743886.389
23395.6223477.631
33202.3603317.307
43032.6173185.409
52953.1283087.615
62870.2792951.330
72788.9782855.230
82721.2952765.094
92662.1082674.749
102618.2612606.536
112568.9682549.662
122518.5372486.541
132483.9712438.389
142438.9402389.877
152388.6812336.228
162347.1322293.379
172302.9752243.033
182272.9252191.390
192246.4532145.625
202214.8002109.349
212184.2972074.111
222152.8832034.666
232126.4332006.939
242099.2761966.304
252075.7061940.702
262044.0011918.573
272011.1691884.721
281990.7011857.706
291970.6191826.154
301947.8551791.240
311926.5931759.122
321909.8351726.323
331890.6861700.299
341859.8681674.535
351835.2321638.993
361808.3661610.430
371790.2841581.784
381770.2291554.945
391744.0891532.810
401723.0321503.586
411702.0461475.192
421684.7111454.071
431665.0391436.218
441646.0501411.615
451627.1891389.400
461609.1521364.444
471589.8821341.718
481573.6771311.927
491554.3441289.285
501538.4991264.721
511517.4281242.346
521500.2661219.878
531485.6061193.503
541469.1541168.187
551453.7951142.409
561438.0171111.042
571417.1581092.448
581404.8531073.618
591387.3561052.903
601369.9321025.646
611358.153998.369
621341.296978.414
631323.076959.744
641306.621936.780
651288.106918.876
661267.745900.551
671252.476883.416
681231.280861.038
691211.560838.012
701192.971821.419
711175.535798.702
721159.943780.485
731143.817759.091
741125.477739.955
751108.101718.723
761089.252699.743
771073.380679.045
781053.117659.917
791036.679641.590
801012.113617.567
81993.235594.980
82973.226573.489
83953.466549.089
84932.676528.656
85910.010510.946
86887.767487.104
87863.896462.531
88838.069442.757
89811.476419.041
90785.599392.694
91757.450368.125
92725.528339.152
93689.585308.313
94651.043270.813
95610.876243.968
96569.805213.087
97511.308168.048
98462.032129.216
99369.71283.819


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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