Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep469.703361.963338.99816.456336.6911090.771
Sep-Oct929.165605.561483.67117.631587.5962575.301
Sep-Nov1187.308799.940535.71417.631747.4653139.493

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102096.1622188.995
201803.6671782.073
301616.1841519.971
401453.9741281.072
501319.7881080.814
601206.755878.249
701085.993703.350
80947.308527.202
90772.506331.860

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12995.5663230.326
22717.5362898.200
32516.8862767.858
42441.2632660.580
52352.6632581.009
62286.6012470.065
72223.6892391.788
82180.7482318.328
92138.7922244.653
102096.1622188.995
112059.5272142.563
122024.9272091.001
131993.5382051.646
141965.9752011.975
151928.0151968.076
161895.2011932.994
171867.7541891.747
181848.1011849.407
191822.7581811.857
201803.6671782.073
211777.3421753.124
221757.9651720.695
231736.2071697.886
241717.9691664.434
251700.5851643.345
261684.8881625.105
271665.7021597.186
281647.7641574.890
291630.7831548.830
301616.1841519.971
311598.7501493.399
321575.3481466.240
331559.9301444.671
341542.9681423.304
351524.5461393.798
361507.8251370.060
371495.9491346.234
381483.4991323.889
391468.8701305.445
401453.9741281.072
411440.1151257.367
421423.8121239.716
431412.5881224.786
441401.0911204.195
451385.0841185.584
461372.8661164.657
471360.0671145.581
481348.9271120.547
491333.7901101.500
501319.7881080.814
511308.7651061.951
521296.6361042.992
531286.0471020.710
541272.586999.297
551261.803977.468
561250.611950.869
571242.127935.082
581230.644919.081
591218.588901.461
601206.755878.249
611195.084854.989
621182.607837.953
631170.442821.999
641156.078802.356
651144.729787.026
661134.010771.322
671122.006756.624
681106.188737.413
691095.996717.624
701085.993703.350
711072.925683.792
721060.856668.094
731049.112649.642
741034.633633.124
751019.236614.782
761007.548598.373
77994.897580.465
78979.510563.904
79960.684548.028
80947.308527.202
81932.968507.610
82920.452488.957
83901.555467.770
84883.914450.021
85865.992434.632
86846.934413.912
87831.847392.553
88813.114375.365
89795.131354.753
90772.506331.860
91748.500310.521
92727.845285.373
93705.558258.633
94680.937226.168
95654.433202.969
96612.522176.339
97576.408137.630
98532.707104.414
99460.89365.820


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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