Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan93.46628.64617.5670.00044.334136.140
Jan-Feb162.36164.17428.8810.000129.937727.481
Jan-Mar235.738121.56248.1823.526244.936958.280

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10208.243416.254
20164.356312.037
30136.101255.426
40115.767209.650
5099.255174.499
6083.795141.051
7069.790113.406
8053.57785.400
9034.56452.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1346.838815.239
2303.892663.019
3280.639609.975
4262.149569.540
5246.407540.030
6236.201502.700
7228.503477.417
8220.394454.378
9213.747432.324
10208.243416.254
11200.873403.234
12195.364389.215
13190.786378.676
14187.062368.167
15182.271356.910
16177.795348.201
17173.804337.949
18169.954327.691
19166.938318.876
20164.356312.037
21160.585305.456
22157.062297.917
23154.164293.115
24151.385285.728
25148.334281.246
26146.069277.368
27143.592271.324
28141.131266.584
29138.440261.376
30136.101255.426
31134.006250.146
32132.067244.612
33129.732240.383
34127.925236.415
35126.045230.605
36124.017226.195
37121.694221.672
38119.657217.566
39117.605214.112
40115.767209.650
41113.961205.328
42112.239202.198
43110.506199.475
44108.990195.855
45107.676192.595
46106.078188.863
47104.338185.644
48102.825181.320
49101.229177.996
5099.255174.499
5197.517171.320
5296.027168.200
5394.141164.363
5492.677160.936
5591.113157.133
5689.567152.936
5788.189150.355
5886.331147.711
5984.948144.910
6083.795141.051
6182.388137.409
6281.139134.713
6379.910132.143
6478.771129.085
6577.374126.649
6676.064124.158
6775.017121.830
6873.428118.790
6971.578115.662
7069.790113.406
7168.240110.316
7266.856107.836
7365.363104.918
7463.876102.303
7561.78899.395
7660.16896.788
7758.65793.937
7856.98091.293
7955.33988.750
8053.57785.400
8151.64582.232
8249.85679.199
8347.83875.731
8445.94872.804
8544.16870.248
8642.47566.778
8740.74363.162
8838.94360.220
8937.02456.650
9034.56452.625
9132.00848.810
9229.11744.224
9326.63139.226
9423.29932.961
9519.94528.329
9616.34922.824
9713.13514.389
988.4106.637
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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