Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan93.46628.64619.2010.00044.334136.140
Jan-Feb162.36164.17430.9180.000129.937727.481
Jan-Mar235.738121.56245.2303.526244.936958.280

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10194.389416.254
20152.215312.037
30126.118255.426
40106.210209.650
5090.619174.499
6076.468141.051
7062.833113.406
8047.22485.400
9029.35852.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1329.546815.239
2285.448663.019
3265.053609.975
4245.032569.540
5231.920540.030
6221.384502.700
7213.351477.417
8205.630454.378
9199.332432.324
10194.389416.254
11187.901403.234
12182.710389.215
13178.641378.676
14174.555368.167
15170.144356.910
16165.820348.201
17161.963337.949
18158.163327.691
19154.996318.876
20152.215312.037
21148.603305.456
22146.065297.917
23142.438293.115
24139.925285.728
25137.460281.246
26134.539277.368
27132.530271.324
28130.623266.584
29128.003261.376
30126.118255.426
31124.136250.146
32122.261244.612
33120.029240.383
34117.644236.415
35115.625230.605
36113.777226.195
37112.132221.672
38110.289217.566
39108.138214.112
40106.210209.650
41104.813205.328
42103.183202.198
43101.586199.475
4499.996195.855
4598.471192.595
4696.875188.863
4795.276185.644
4893.776181.320
4991.853177.996
5090.619174.499
5189.321171.320
5287.740168.200
5386.215164.363
5484.594160.936
5583.356157.133
5681.592152.936
5780.326150.355
5878.893147.711
5977.558144.910
6076.468141.051
6174.742137.409
6273.463134.713
6372.185132.143
6470.946129.085
6569.789126.649
6668.598124.158
6767.541121.830
6866.033118.790
6964.345115.662
7062.833113.406
7161.399110.316
7259.770107.836
7358.393104.918
7456.617102.303
7555.21299.395
7653.95196.788
7752.35693.937
7850.78391.293
7948.92488.750
8047.22485.400
8145.34982.232
8243.70079.199
8342.20675.731
8440.33872.804
8538.71570.248
8636.80666.778
8735.14863.162
8833.65560.220
8931.99156.650
9029.35852.625
9126.82348.810
9224.64644.224
9322.10439.226
9419.12232.961
9515.96728.329
9612.99322.824
978.60514.389
984.2556.637
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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