Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Feb 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb66.26143.7514.4650.00062.355104.611
Feb-Mar132.049393.86819.3353.526123.379306.779
Feb-Apr206.021450.21238.1525.877148.5061015.546

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10127.499385.331
2098.183278.855
3079.369223.728
4065.575180.575
5054.003148.528
6043.892119.027
7033.19095.198
8022.34671.978
909.36145.930

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1234.655838.495
2200.063657.589
3181.075597.161
4166.522551.330
5158.931519.449
6148.780477.797
7141.661450.250
8136.970425.698
9131.980402.272
10127.499385.331
11123.651371.676
12119.779357.003
13116.519346.139
14112.847335.472
15110.113323.990
16107.903315.051
17105.635304.802
18102.749294.565
19100.391285.720
2098.183278.855
2195.831272.308
2293.628265.116
2391.701260.146
2489.663252.986
2587.870248.549
2686.054244.759
2784.568239.040
2883.274234.544
2981.608229.366
3079.369223.728
3177.788218.623
3276.335213.489
3374.759209.470
3473.438205.539
3572.281200.192
3671.077195.956
3769.890191.762
3868.706187.880
3967.107184.712
4065.575180.575
4164.443176.604
4263.133173.680
4361.837171.229
4460.591167.879
4559.323164.883
4658.026161.547
4756.987158.538
4856.041154.632
4955.073151.691
5054.003148.528
5152.811145.671
5251.862142.824
5350.629139.509
5449.562136.354
5548.630133.167
5647.655129.323
5746.723127.060
5845.764124.781
5944.797122.288
6043.892119.027
6142.894115.786
6241.654113.429
6340.599111.232
6439.602108.543
6538.310106.454
6637.300104.324
6736.375102.338
6835.27499.753
6934.24297.103
7033.19095.198
7132.02192.596
7231.10090.514
7329.86688.074
7428.70885.894
7527.70583.478
7626.80381.320
7725.64478.968
7824.40076.794
7923.20974.711
8022.34671.978
8121.30969.405
8219.99666.952
8318.83764.160
8417.60961.814
8516.51559.775
8615.16357.018
8713.97354.161
8812.49151.848
8910.94849.057
909.36145.930
917.04442.984
924.90439.471
932.73435.674
940.58630.966
950.00027.522
960.00023.472
970.00017.360
980.00011.848
990.0005.033


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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