Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar73.37857.38919.3003.526114.998202.169
Mar-Apr148.17381.77895.9745.877151.854910.935
Mar-May260.214164.020166.87729.385202.9401798.362

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10218.543489.740
20166.558340.280
30135.532267.500
40113.620213.118
5094.256174.410
6078.350140.210
7063.375113.720
8047.21989.016
9027.65862.816

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1406.9291219.990
2339.175913.125
3308.581814.793
4286.802741.757
5270.105691.779
6254.336627.563
7242.759585.797
8234.074549.067
9227.352514.472
10218.543489.740
11210.909469.984
12204.483448.938
13198.563433.481
14192.079418.410
15186.590402.310
16182.067389.863
17178.774375.688
18174.115361.636
19170.654349.580
20166.558340.280
21162.407331.458
22159.449321.821
23156.330315.194
24152.312305.696
25148.856299.839
26146.282294.854
27143.302287.364
28140.371281.502
29138.036274.782
30135.532267.500
31133.242260.942
32131.261254.378
33128.940249.265
34126.524244.282
35124.827237.537
36122.293232.220
37120.032226.979
38117.889222.149
39116.111218.223
40113.620213.118
41111.532208.240
42109.348204.662
43107.507201.672
44105.723197.601
45103.632193.973
46101.575189.950
4799.621186.334
4897.837181.662
4995.821178.161
5094.256174.410
5192.279171.034
5290.283167.684
5388.993163.800
5487.241160.120
5585.714156.419
5684.155151.978
5782.599149.376
5881.396146.764
5979.866143.917
6078.350140.210
6177.076136.545
6275.201133.890
6373.637131.426
6472.205128.422
6570.687126.098
6669.425123.737
6767.714121.543
6866.211118.699
6964.852115.797
7063.375113.720
7161.864110.894
7260.069108.644
7358.632106.017
7456.564103.681
7554.593101.104
7653.22798.814
7751.66696.328
7850.15394.042
7948.67691.862
8047.21989.016
8145.89786.352
8243.66783.828
8342.12280.972
8440.26778.588
8538.24476.526
8636.45273.755
8734.51370.905
8832.74368.614
8930.21165.867
9027.65862.816
9125.76459.968
9222.96356.603
9320.32053.010
9417.28848.615
9514.31745.447
969.84641.773
975.60836.340
980.00231.564
990.00025.833


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence