Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May112.04282.24270.90438.78851.086887.427
May-Jun299.186286.457293.03474.050145.5802162.736
May-Jul655.493601.819717.467106.961343.7213768.332

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101303.0771288.327
20989.479898.122
30813.146708.040
40673.375566.014
50565.976464.945
60474.205375.672
70396.902306.546
80312.256242.108
90228.443173.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12440.6373183.375
22090.7802390.284
31922.6252135.001
41739.4471945.095
51639.5371815.018
61545.5391647.750
71470.7381538.885
81419.7341443.104
91363.8851352.860
101303.0771288.327
111270.6651236.769
121225.6211181.836
131186.5551141.486
141144.7731102.141
151117.3051060.104
161084.1781027.603
171056.072990.589
181027.778953.893
191010.777922.409
20989.479898.122
21972.132875.081
22948.777849.912
23934.746832.605
24916.497807.798
25899.131792.502
26877.163779.482
27859.193759.919
28844.551744.609
29828.850727.057
30813.146708.040
31794.080690.910
32777.594673.768
33763.349660.413
34748.913647.401
35736.044629.784
36723.034615.899
37707.849602.212
38696.689589.600
39684.929579.347
40673.375566.014
41661.605553.276
42651.011543.935
43640.454536.127
44627.319525.496
45615.587516.023
46605.333505.519
47595.414496.079
48584.066483.880
49574.817474.739
50565.976464.945
51556.674456.133
52546.932447.387
53538.632437.247
54529.154427.640
55520.301417.980
56511.787406.387
57502.115399.596
58492.749392.778
59481.706385.346
60474.205375.672
61466.572366.106
62459.976359.178
63449.418352.749
64443.359344.908
65436.237338.845
66427.706332.682
67419.453326.958
68411.462319.539
69403.901311.966
70396.902306.546
71388.301299.175
72380.341293.304
73371.954286.451
74363.308280.358
75355.744273.637
76347.496267.662
77338.771261.179
78328.531255.217
79321.247249.530
80312.256242.108
81303.638235.162
82295.690228.579
83286.611221.133
84279.069214.916
85270.108209.540
86262.560202.318
87254.299194.888
88245.445188.916
89235.119181.758
90228.443173.806
91218.886166.384
92208.181157.616
93194.345148.253
94184.753136.806
95170.042128.554
96154.240118.986
97137.978104.840
98117.39692.407
9996.65977.494


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence