Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun187.144204.215222.13135.26294.4941275.309
Jun-Jul543.451519.578646.56468.173292.6352880.905
Jun-Aug1022.9691098.756833.33086.980593.3673962.273

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101594.2862067.818
201270.8201516.979
301065.0191211.098
40919.856967.964
50789.269789.177
60675.459628.973
70577.505504.675
80462.038389.701
90330.403270.149

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12680.1463745.379
22311.4473184.739
32141.8372969.421
42004.2522794.867
51901.6662667.214
61805.4892492.202
71760.5972371.068
81700.0912259.354
91645.8972149.398
101594.2862067.818
111552.4202000.799
121508.2061927.538
131474.0171872.473
141439.3191817.742
151407.2701758.113
161378.0911711.184
171351.2601656.854
181317.6171602.054
191292.8561554.292
201270.8201516.979
211249.6261481.202
221229.3421441.702
231205.4971414.289
241186.8471374.641
251166.2301349.987
261143.9131328.880
271128.7301296.954
281103.9841271.795
291079.9301242.768
301065.0191211.098
311050.4311182.380
321034.8221153.465
331019.9531130.817
341008.0671108.653
35994.3571078.493
36978.0591054.603
37964.6571030.955
38948.0101009.079
39933.082991.239
40919.856967.964
41906.229945.651
42891.001929.244
43875.877915.501
44863.716896.749
45849.819880.002
46839.787861.395
47826.627844.639
48814.851822.943
49802.029806.654
50789.269789.177
51780.177773.429
52767.466757.781
53757.538739.616
54742.602722.388
55734.097705.048
56719.216684.220
57709.114672.012
58697.577659.751
59689.137646.381
60675.459628.973
61664.790611.756
62655.883599.287
63646.167587.717
64635.588573.609
65625.545562.701
66616.479551.619
67607.163541.330
68596.396527.998
69587.199514.400
70577.505504.675
71565.337491.459
72553.380480.940
73542.724468.674
74530.413457.781
75520.023445.778
76509.269435.120
77497.180423.571
78485.300412.966
79475.400402.862
80462.038389.701
81452.201377.408
82437.045365.781
83424.255352.658
84412.047341.728
85401.805332.297
86388.858319.657
87378.180306.693
88362.411296.304
89346.213283.889
90330.403270.149
91316.102257.379
92299.706242.362
93282.378226.417
94265.905207.060
95247.534193.208
96221.206177.264
97196.131153.946
98169.912133.733
99133.840109.890


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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