Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Jan96.70720.29510.6250.00037.527257.413
Jan-Feb158.93038.31712.4690.00064.247488.966
Jan-Mar219.66643.80813.8603.52684.896749.905

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10182.459416.254
20143.106312.037
30118.623255.426
4099.496209.650
5083.717174.499
6070.415141.051
7057.545113.406
8042.43285.400
9025.47752.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1316.959815.239
2274.565663.019
3250.266609.975
4234.742569.540
5221.908540.030
6211.729502.700
7201.879477.417
8195.040454.378
9189.343432.324
10182.459416.254
11178.368403.234
12173.068389.215
13169.309378.676
14164.933368.167
15160.603356.910
16156.822348.201
17152.812337.949
18149.120327.691
19145.993318.876
20143.106312.037
21139.694305.456
22136.999297.917
23134.224293.115
24131.343285.728
25129.126281.246
26126.818277.368
27124.424271.324
28122.660266.584
29120.278261.376
30118.623255.426
31116.578250.146
32114.384244.612
33112.073240.383
34110.309236.415
35107.943230.605
36106.278226.195
37104.422221.672
38102.487217.566
39100.895214.112
4099.496209.650
4197.692205.328
4296.518202.198
4394.869199.475
4493.075195.855
4591.588192.595
4690.061188.863
4788.560185.644
4886.668181.320
4985.385177.996
5083.717174.499
5182.528171.320
5281.359168.200
5380.024164.363
5478.649160.936
5577.314157.133
5675.808152.936
5774.483150.355
5873.211147.711
5971.796144.910
6070.415141.051
6169.171137.409
6268.141134.713
6366.449132.143
6465.024129.085
6563.937126.649
6662.640124.158
6761.734121.830
6860.405118.790
6959.259115.662
7057.545113.406
7155.951110.316
7254.644107.836
7353.024104.918
7451.552102.303
7550.32099.395
7648.80096.788
7747.70293.937
7845.87991.293
7944.17588.750
8042.43285.400
8140.57082.232
8239.09279.199
8337.72075.731
8436.06872.804
8534.33170.248
8632.61166.778
8731.03063.162
8829.60660.220
8927.99456.650
9025.47752.625
9123.04548.810
9221.19444.224
9319.28539.226
9416.21732.961
9512.84128.329
969.97822.824
975.66714.389
980.9496.637
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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