Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jun 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun192.15925.30238.40435.262101.1461275.309
Jun-Jul555.433117.910147.50068.173260.7412880.905
Jun-Aug1040.466210.245292.53386.980534.5573962.273

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101044.7242067.818
20808.4801516.979
30663.9851211.098
40563.533967.964
50476.273789.177
60398.249628.973
70332.633504.675
80258.017389.701
90173.533270.149

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11890.5133745.379
21611.8223184.739
31463.3072969.421
41347.9982794.867
51267.0212667.214
61209.7622492.202
71170.6762371.068
81129.5012259.354
91085.4992149.398
101044.7242067.818
111009.4802000.799
12979.6381927.538
13952.6861872.473
14925.0891817.742
15902.9571758.113
16882.4061711.184
17861.3561656.854
18846.6591602.054
19824.6851554.292
20808.4801516.979
21795.0041481.202
22779.0641441.702
23763.7491414.289
24747.8111374.641
25731.7541349.987
26715.6351328.880
27703.1591296.954
28688.4491271.795
29675.1391242.768
30663.9851211.098
31651.8221182.380
32643.5671153.465
33632.0851130.817
34621.8421108.653
35612.2871078.493
36601.6061054.603
37592.8521030.955
38583.3241009.079
39571.448991.239
40563.533967.964
41554.042945.651
42545.357929.244
43533.267915.501
44525.059896.749
45518.195880.002
46510.296861.395
47499.603844.639
48493.057822.943
49484.226806.654
50476.273789.177
51467.643773.429
52459.891757.781
53452.395739.616
54444.206722.388
55435.165705.048
56428.304684.220
57419.168672.012
58412.706659.751
59404.941646.381
60398.249628.973
61391.734611.756
62382.265599.287
63377.111587.717
64370.834573.609
65365.409562.701
66358.245551.619
67350.694541.330
68345.351527.998
69339.672514.400
70332.633504.675
71326.151491.459
72316.761480.940
73310.139468.674
74299.380457.781
75293.113445.778
76287.256435.120
77280.945423.571
78273.222412.966
79266.060402.862
80258.017389.701
81250.789377.408
82243.383365.781
83235.158352.658
84227.516341.728
85220.171332.297
86211.843319.657
87203.627306.693
88194.198296.304
89185.785283.889
90173.533270.149
91163.496257.379
92155.176242.362
93142.670226.417
94130.952207.060
95118.342193.208
96102.738177.264
9787.141153.946
9869.442133.733
9942.093109.890


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence