Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Aug 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug485.03392.335145.03418.806273.8161129.559
Aug-Sep958.576260.203398.38935.262611.7222220.331
Aug-Oct1424.575333.230652.30436.437858.6893704.861

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101820.9922606.536
201501.0342109.349
301290.7981791.240
401120.8861503.586
50973.0781264.721
60859.5561025.646
70726.354821.419
80596.757617.567
90440.620392.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12796.2873886.389
22478.5383477.631
32314.7563317.307
42187.0903185.409
52106.2583087.615
62022.7112951.330
71969.0932855.230
81918.6182765.094
91865.0012674.749
101820.9922606.536
111782.7662549.662
121752.7542486.541
131720.7702438.389
141686.2942389.877
151651.5392336.228
161615.8562293.379
171590.7072243.033
181561.8852191.390
191536.7032145.625
201501.0342109.349
211475.1372074.111
221454.4092034.666
231431.7302006.939
241413.8791966.304
251393.0281940.702
261374.9321918.573
271355.1971884.721
281335.0411857.706
291312.6581826.154
301290.7981791.240
311272.7961759.122
321257.9251726.323
331235.0601700.299
341213.8631674.535
351200.0401638.993
361183.7441610.430
371170.2971581.784
381152.5551554.945
391137.0121532.810
401120.8861503.586
411104.7421475.192
421087.2221454.071
431071.8531436.218
441057.2061411.615
451042.9921389.400
461029.0761364.444
471013.8491341.718
48997.8901311.927
49984.7491289.285
50973.0781264.721
51961.5211242.346
52947.7591219.878
53937.0601193.503
54925.2281168.187
55913.0491142.409
56901.7101111.042
57890.0811092.448
58880.5121073.618
59871.4131052.903
60859.5561025.646
61847.200998.369
62831.398978.414
63817.855959.744
64804.772936.780
65793.231918.876
66778.533900.551
67764.568883.416
68751.698861.038
69739.193838.012
70726.354821.419
71714.588798.702
72702.864780.485
73692.020759.091
74678.347739.955
75668.460718.723
76655.808699.743
77640.701679.045
78625.669659.917
79611.334641.590
80596.757617.567
81580.659594.980
82567.119573.489
83552.707549.089
84539.745528.656
85522.304510.946
86508.416487.104
87493.973462.531
88475.566442.757
89458.650419.041
90440.620392.694
91419.379368.125
92400.403339.152
93377.673308.313
94354.720270.813
95325.721243.968
96295.855213.087
97265.392168.048
98220.299129.216
99175.11383.819


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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