Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Jan95.3937.88125.7790.00034.849257.413
Jan-Feb156.57211.77337.4170.00060.115488.966
Jan-Mar216.40316.21781.8153.52677.415749.905

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10171.096416.254
20132.782312.037
30109.669255.426
4091.358209.650
5076.706174.499
6064.065141.051
7051.212113.406
8037.49485.400
9020.90152.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1303.238815.239
2259.877663.019
3235.941609.975
4222.316569.540
5209.980540.030
6200.204502.700
7190.434477.417
8183.334454.378
9177.494432.324
10171.096416.254
11166.861403.234
12162.577389.215
13158.409378.676
14154.874368.167
15150.292356.910
16146.250348.201
17142.223337.949
18138.928327.691
19135.761318.876
20132.782312.037
21129.635305.456
22127.209297.917
23124.253293.115
24121.774285.728
25119.873281.246
26117.879277.368
27115.640271.324
28114.024266.584
29111.808261.376
30109.669255.426
31108.015250.146
32105.842244.612
33103.682240.383
34101.811236.415
3599.514230.605
3697.686226.195
3796.031221.672
3894.360217.566
3992.881214.112
4091.358209.650
4189.758205.328
4288.143202.198
4386.770199.475
4485.636195.855
4584.224192.595
4682.400188.863
4780.841185.644
4879.269181.320
4977.734177.996
5076.706174.499
5175.240171.320
5274.222168.200
5373.115164.363
5471.711160.936
5570.444157.133
5668.887152.936
5767.645150.355
5866.657147.711
5965.229144.910
6064.065141.051
6162.818137.409
6261.676134.713
6360.463132.143
6458.879129.085
6557.556126.649
6656.350124.158
6755.165121.830
6853.929118.790
6952.444115.662
7051.212113.406
7149.913110.316
7248.599107.836
7347.276104.918
7445.868102.303
7544.63199.395
7643.13796.788
7741.73493.937
7840.54691.293
7938.77988.750
8037.49485.400
8135.54282.232
8233.99679.199
8332.58875.731
8431.21272.804
8529.67670.248
8628.06466.778
8726.65663.162
8824.99460.220
8922.95356.650
9020.90152.625
9118.82548.810
9217.30944.224
9315.02139.226
9412.66432.961
959.76528.329
966.08422.824
972.49814.389
980.0006.637
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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