Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Jan95.27210.62523.4700.00034.123257.413
Jan-Feb156.48912.46949.5560.00059.617488.966
Jan-Mar216.23613.86096.9373.52676.408749.905

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10198.543416.254
20156.164312.037
30129.379255.426
40109.269209.650
5093.548174.499
6078.917141.051
7065.256113.406
8049.41685.400
9031.06852.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1335.467815.239
2290.459663.019
3270.456609.975
4251.421569.540
5237.141540.030
6226.693502.700
7218.204477.417
8210.693454.378
9204.229432.324
10198.543416.254
11192.519403.234
12186.813389.215
13182.854378.676
14178.385368.167
15174.396356.910
16169.950348.201
17166.272337.949
18162.198327.691
19158.897318.876
20156.164312.037
21152.763305.456
22149.678297.917
23146.541293.115
24143.615285.728
25141.233281.246
26138.361277.368
27136.233271.324
28133.919266.584
29131.750261.376
30129.379255.426
31127.483250.146
32125.602244.612
33123.362240.383
34120.938236.415
35119.023230.605
36117.523226.195
37115.232221.672
38113.496217.566
39111.471214.112
40109.269209.650
41107.813205.328
42106.421202.198
43104.474199.475
44103.089195.855
45101.492192.595
46100.010188.863
4798.342185.644
4896.839181.320
4995.063177.996
5093.548174.499
5192.257171.320
5290.315168.200
5388.885164.363
5487.511160.936
5585.796157.133
5684.393152.936
5782.760150.355
5881.312147.711
5980.131144.910
6078.917141.051
6177.343137.409
6276.063134.713
6374.864132.143
6473.510129.085
6572.320126.649
6671.162124.158
6770.041121.830
6868.301118.790
6966.679115.662
7065.256113.406
7163.912110.316
7262.250107.836
7360.676104.918
7458.977102.303
7557.49499.395
7656.17696.788
7754.51293.937
7852.85691.293
7951.16288.750
8049.41685.400
8147.46982.232
8245.69879.199
8343.88275.731
8442.28172.804
8540.61470.248
8638.83366.778
8736.98063.162
8835.28060.220
8933.68156.650
9031.06852.625
9128.78448.810
9226.10644.224
9323.67139.226
9420.45832.961
9517.24728.329
9614.25622.824
9710.04014.389
985.7116.637
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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