Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Apr 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr74.62114.78531.8286.52919.998708.766
Apr-May188.26941.17670.64324.00661.1741596.193
Apr-Jun377.86579.580146.01049.308150.4112871.502

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10601.382707.153
20463.067500.335
30384.673398.371
40326.390321.466
50278.874266.258
60238.837217.076
70201.867178.659
80163.871142.515
90121.643103.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11148.6331689.653
2952.0811280.992
3854.7861148.923
4797.6111050.412
5746.835982.776
6704.537895.579
7676.922838.673
8649.149788.494
9622.516741.108
10601.382707.153
11581.359679.981
12560.415650.983
13544.287629.651
14530.228608.823
15517.220586.539
16507.290569.286
17494.343549.612
18481.878530.079
19473.676513.297
20463.067500.335
21453.719488.025
22443.516474.564
23434.831465.299
24428.307452.005
25421.522443.799
26414.322436.810
27406.352426.299
28399.835418.065
29392.950408.618
30384.673398.371
31377.030389.132
32370.307379.877
33361.746372.660
34356.597365.622
35351.441356.084
36345.889348.559
37340.816341.135
38336.103334.287
39331.540328.717
40326.390321.466
41321.348314.532
42315.636309.443
43310.901305.187
44305.680299.387
45301.441294.215
46296.966288.476
47291.277283.313
48287.107276.636
49282.969271.628
50278.874266.258
51274.820261.423
52270.162256.619
53265.579251.045
54261.916245.759
55258.488240.439
56254.575234.048
57250.439230.300
58246.816226.535
59243.135222.428
60238.837217.076
61235.078211.779
62231.724207.939
63227.330204.372
64223.400200.019
65220.141196.650
66216.200193.223
67212.047190.038
68208.396185.905
69204.718181.683
70201.867178.659
71198.033174.542
72194.948171.259
73191.855167.425
74187.800164.012
75183.150160.245
76179.860156.891
77175.568153.250
78172.299149.898
79167.711146.697
80163.871142.515
81160.845138.596
82157.229134.878
83153.521130.666
84149.793127.145
85145.028124.097
86140.141119.997
87135.990115.773
88131.337112.373
89126.999108.291
90121.643103.748
91117.19599.500
92113.09194.472
93106.73989.089
94100.81582.488
9593.05277.716
9684.66672.165
9777.29563.924
9867.11656.642
9953.93647.851


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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