Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jun 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun189.13317.48584.00335.26286.4581275.309
Jun-Jul548.327119.409303.66368.173245.2052880.905
Jun-Aug1027.383237.620797.21386.980502.2803962.273

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101314.6712067.818
201032.8681516.979
30856.7811211.098
40734.509967.964
50628.033789.177
60531.144628.973
70449.377504.675
80356.831389.701
90247.759270.149

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12282.7033745.379
21965.7873184.739
31810.5822969.421
41663.0732794.867
51585.6012667.214
61507.1992492.202
71465.1412371.068
81409.1242259.354
91360.8322149.398
101314.6712067.818
111276.9302000.799
121238.6221927.538
131205.0991872.473
141177.5951817.742
151149.3261758.113
161122.6451711.184
171100.1711656.854
181076.5901602.054
191055.5421554.292
201032.8681516.979
211015.0271481.202
22998.8701441.702
23981.2491414.289
24960.6871374.641
25943.7921349.987
26921.6811328.880
27906.1381296.954
28892.3161271.795
29871.4771242.768
30856.7811211.098
31843.8751182.380
32832.2941153.465
33820.4001130.817
34806.9771108.653
35796.3681078.493
36783.8361054.603
37771.8661030.955
38758.4881009.079
39748.706991.239
40734.509967.964
41722.480945.651
42711.269929.244
43699.790915.501
44687.790896.749
45677.503880.002
46667.871861.395
47656.609844.639
48647.858822.943
49637.695806.654
50628.033789.177
51617.440773.429
52607.277757.781
53597.736739.616
54586.700722.388
55578.889705.048
56568.902684.220
57558.849672.012
58549.229659.751
59538.573646.381
60531.144628.973
61522.481611.756
62514.296599.287
63505.485587.717
64497.371573.609
65488.842562.701
66481.799551.619
67473.374541.330
68466.768527.998
69457.958514.400
70449.377504.675
71439.288491.459
72429.690480.940
73419.633468.674
74410.094457.781
75400.913445.778
76392.700435.120
77383.858423.571
78374.834412.966
79364.412402.862
80356.831389.701
81346.413377.408
82334.782365.781
83325.519352.658
84316.513341.728
85305.885332.297
86297.271319.657
87286.118306.693
88275.168296.304
89261.212283.889
90247.759270.149
91235.386257.379
92222.255242.362
93209.080226.417
94195.951207.060
95181.208193.208
96157.702177.264
97139.280153.946
98116.969133.733
9983.702109.890


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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