Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jul 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul359.038109.095173.03632.911157.8101605.596
Jul-Aug838.404254.129633.64051.718416.7442686.964
Jul-Sep1308.277507.4841381.07868.173746.4873582.619

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101596.6352457.056
201312.4481869.580
301119.3881549.665
40969.7271290.488
50843.8431091.125
60727.107901.104
70615.637743.780
80500.069584.114
90352.816396.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12654.0764693.807
22291.5393842.345
32104.8413545.133
41973.3973318.385
51891.2343152.783
61816.0192943.160
71747.4212801.090
81685.5832671.557
91634.7072547.495
101596.6352457.056
111568.6512383.756
121530.6292304.801
131490.6302245.425
141461.3842186.204
151436.3232122.745
161409.0292073.637
171388.8892015.812
181361.1571957.942
191337.1491908.192
201312.4481869.580
211293.1421832.422
221270.4751789.845
231249.6411762.723
241232.1871720.982
251212.9701695.655
261196.4701673.735
271178.3561639.571
281153.3741612.774
291133.7761583.324
301119.3881549.665
311103.9081519.796
321090.6231488.481
331074.6851464.548
341057.1001442.088
351039.4661409.197
361025.7791384.220
371013.8651358.602
38998.6461335.342
39986.9351315.776
40969.7271290.488
41959.4471265.993
42947.2841248.250
43934.4961232.812
44920.3531212.288
45906.1071193.802
46891.5721172.632
47879.7051154.371
48864.6251129.838
49853.3271110.972
50843.8431091.125
51832.1831073.078
52818.0301055.363
53807.2521033.578
54796.9841014.110
55784.496992.506
56772.440968.660
57760.492953.997
58747.325938.964
59735.901923.044
60727.107901.104
61712.332880.389
62701.110865.058
63692.477850.436
64682.555833.034
65673.759819.175
66661.188804.998
67650.712791.745
68640.951774.438
69626.916756.625
70615.637743.780
71607.157726.178
72598.482712.044
73586.384695.417
74574.427680.514
75557.408663.938
76545.937649.077
77534.151632.817
78525.438617.734
79511.011603.226
80500.069584.114
81484.942566.033
82473.154548.719
83459.336528.913
84444.371512.193
85430.316497.593
86415.209477.764
87398.924457.095
88384.964440.274
89369.580419.856
90352.816396.830
91332.695374.993
92313.733348.735
93294.698320.105
94274.009284.195
95244.601257.632
96212.210226.044
97180.097177.603
98145.767133.032
9975.86776.589


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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