Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Oct 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct462.464253.916664.4221.175247.3221484.530
Oct-Nov719.316348.0831099.5391.175388.4172048.722
Oct-Dec870.560379.9731580.9991.175462.5192239.137

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101866.2701613.334
201613.3461341.278
301456.3041162.082
401315.930993.433
501193.022845.301
601079.338684.845
70971.479532.246
80836.687358.122
90686.207148.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12565.9602298.386
22336.4242080.591
32239.5351995.013
42145.5801924.511
52070.0511872.168
62026.1101799.100
71974.5791747.471
81937.8761698.953
91899.5001650.214
101866.2701613.334
111834.2201582.521
121798.4381548.250
131764.8111522.051
141741.4871495.599
151719.6241466.276
161693.1961442.799
171670.3061415.143
181652.9681386.687
191628.8501361.388
201613.3461341.278
211595.6211321.690
221580.6311299.696
231564.8491284.192
241550.2451261.399
251532.6901246.993
261514.2421234.511
271500.1601215.359
281487.1401200.023
291471.7981182.050
301456.3041162.082
311446.4501143.631
321429.0381124.704
331414.1251109.621
341401.4571094.631
351386.9221073.848
361373.6331057.054
371356.9171040.125
381346.2511024.182
391331.8751010.970
401315.930993.433
411300.260976.289
421289.277963.465
431277.559952.575
441265.186937.490
451252.253923.790
461239.794908.303
471228.247894.107
481219.024875.358
491205.896860.996
501193.022845.301
511180.904830.894
521167.825816.317
531157.344799.058
541145.348782.334
551134.979765.136
561123.242743.968
571113.747731.287
581101.688718.339
591088.991703.969
601079.338684.845
611068.483665.451
621059.530651.091
631048.036637.518
641037.049620.633
651026.641607.316
661017.011593.542
671005.096580.525
68993.175563.318
69982.659545.357
70971.479532.246
71956.074514.059
72943.609499.270
73932.360481.660
74921.921465.681
75905.841447.693
76891.353431.377
77880.168413.326
78861.636396.403
79848.463379.973
80836.687358.122
81825.759337.268
82811.676317.172
83797.800294.101
84782.745274.627
85767.229257.683
86751.738234.873
87735.485211.519
88720.412192.984
89704.190171.252
90686.207148.031
91666.394127.542
92643.932105.181
93617.05583.868
94593.83961.724
95566.77448.450
96535.23935.731
97500.25221.613
98457.50013.060
99403.5376.461


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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