Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam



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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Jan94.09523.470136.1400.00028.477257.413
Jan-Feb154.73649.556727.4810.00052.701488.966
Jan-Mar214.28096.937958.2803.52669.529749.905

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10679.697416.254
20575.635312.037
30508.835255.426
40449.302209.650
50406.041174.499
60361.374141.051
70316.551113.406
80272.75185.400
90217.01952.625

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11046.833815.239
2916.214663.019
3853.439609.975
4816.317569.540
5782.487540.030
6755.590502.700
7731.765477.417
8714.557454.378
9694.837432.324
10679.697416.254
11664.628403.234
12652.829389.215
13639.488378.676
14631.555368.167
15620.581356.910
16610.006348.201
17601.747337.949
18591.941327.691
19582.576318.876
20575.635312.037
21568.784305.456
22561.241297.917
23554.019293.115
24547.676285.728
25540.907281.246
26532.256277.368
27526.690271.324
28520.303266.584
29513.974261.376
30508.835255.426
31502.255250.146
32495.592244.612
33489.386240.383
34484.310236.415
35477.306230.605
36472.064226.195
37465.047221.672
38460.240217.566
39455.050214.112
40449.302209.650
41443.801205.328
42439.255202.198
43434.808199.475
44430.303195.855
45426.065192.595
46421.759188.863
47417.718185.644
48413.483181.320
49409.810177.996
50406.041174.499
51401.323171.320
52397.307168.200
53393.148164.363
54389.168160.936
55385.061157.133
56381.136152.936
57376.104150.355
58370.674147.711
59366.203144.910
60361.374141.051
61356.680137.409
62352.445134.713
63348.027132.143
64342.511129.085
65338.902126.649
66334.269124.158
67330.037121.830
68325.137118.790
69321.144115.662
70316.551113.406
71312.632110.316
72308.550107.836
73303.867104.918
74300.359102.303
75296.09899.395
76291.53496.788
77286.04293.937
78281.46391.293
79277.14488.750
80272.75185.400
81268.33582.232
82263.75279.199
83259.14575.731
84251.66672.804
85246.38470.248
86242.38666.778
87237.55263.162
88230.48060.220
89224.15756.650
90217.01952.625
91208.31148.810
92201.82744.224
93194.05039.226
94185.78532.961
95174.74428.329
96163.89222.824
97151.39214.389
98134.1066.637
99117.0740.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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