Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.31916.417
2017.63914.162
3016.47512.701
4015.49111.353
5014.57510.201
6013.7058.997
7012.8387.903
8011.7896.718
9010.4335.240

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.21522.188
222.64920.346
321.93319.623
421.31719.029
520.87218.588
620.47117.974
720.12317.540
819.82517.133
919.56216.726
1019.31916.417
1119.13216.160
1218.94515.875
1318.76715.657
1418.58415.437
1518.43115.194
1618.25714.999
1718.13414.770
1817.95214.536
1917.79114.327
2017.63914.162
2117.51714.001
2217.38513.821
2317.27013.694
2417.14413.507
2517.03813.390
2616.90513.288
2716.79713.132
2816.69213.008
2916.56912.862
3016.47512.701
3116.37212.552
3216.26312.399
3316.18512.278
3416.09612.158
3516.02111.992
3615.92111.858
3715.80211.723
3815.70111.597
3915.56611.492
4015.49111.353
4115.38411.218
4215.31211.118
4315.21511.032
4415.12310.914
4515.02910.807
4614.92010.687
4714.85010.577
4814.76810.432
4914.68010.322
5014.57510.201
5114.48710.091
5214.4149.980
5314.3279.849
5414.2519.722
5514.1559.593
5614.0459.434
5713.9779.340
5813.9049.244
5913.8019.137
6013.7058.997
6113.6198.855
6213.5378.750
6313.4518.652
6413.3358.530
6513.2618.434
6613.1768.336
6713.0678.243
6813.0168.121
6912.9277.995
7012.8387.903
7112.6997.776
7212.6037.674
7312.5167.552
7412.4337.443
7512.3207.320
7612.2177.210
7712.1167.088
7812.0276.974
7911.9136.864
8011.7896.718
8111.6546.579
8211.5326.445
8311.4096.291
8411.2696.160
8511.1416.045
8610.9945.888
8710.8625.724
8810.7315.589
8910.5745.425
9010.4335.240
9110.2475.063
9210.0794.849
939.8514.616
949.6304.323
959.3684.106
969.0673.848
978.7533.456
988.2263.098
997.6972.655


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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