Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.42422.555
2024.52519.644
3023.28217.738
4022.25315.960
5021.25114.418
6020.26512.777
7019.27411.254
8018.0039.564
9016.3657.386

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.63729.923
230.31727.577
329.33226.656
428.72125.898
528.16525.335
627.79124.549
727.43923.995
827.08523.474
926.75122.950
1026.42422.555
1126.23022.224
1225.97021.857
1325.77821.576
1425.55321.293
1525.37420.979
1625.20220.728
1724.97420.432
1824.83320.128
1924.63619.858
2024.52519.644
2124.41819.435
2224.26519.200
2324.14219.035
2424.01718.793
2523.89018.639
2623.78018.507
2723.61318.303
2823.52118.141
2923.39517.950
3023.28217.738
3123.16617.543
3223.05717.343
3322.95117.183
3422.83617.025
3522.77016.806
3622.67116.629
3722.59416.451
3822.48216.283
3922.38216.144
4022.25315.960
4122.15015.781
4222.04615.647
4321.92915.533
4421.82015.375
4521.71715.233
4621.62115.071
4721.51914.924
4821.42414.729
4921.32814.580
5021.25114.418
5121.16414.269
5221.07214.119
5320.98113.941
5420.87213.770
5520.77113.593
5620.68513.377
5720.60813.248
5820.51313.116
5920.38012.970
6020.26512.777
6120.19812.581
6220.09712.436
6319.99712.300
6419.89612.131
6519.82611.998
6619.71111.861
6719.58611.731
6819.48611.561
6919.38111.383
7019.27411.254
7119.16411.076
7219.05310.931
7318.93610.759
7418.81010.603
7518.69110.429
7618.53510.271
7718.41210.096
7818.2839.933
7918.1619.774
8018.0039.564
8117.8679.362
8217.7269.167
8317.5828.942
8417.4438.750
8517.3198.582
8617.1008.350
8716.9398.107
8816.7357.908
8916.5847.664
9016.3657.386
9116.0807.121
9215.8376.799
9315.5386.447
9415.2166.002
9514.9295.672
9614.4695.280
9714.0404.682
9813.5094.140
9912.3903.471


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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