Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.27913.216
2013.05711.106
3012.3209.846
4011.5928.749
5010.9597.851
6010.3686.945
709.7776.141
809.0565.277
908.0544.180

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.59619.702
216.70417.448
316.11716.612
415.64415.945
515.36315.461
615.09614.803
714.88914.350
814.63813.933
914.47213.522
1014.27913.216
1114.11312.965
1213.97912.689
1313.84612.481
1413.69512.273
1513.57812.045
1613.44111.865
1713.33811.655
1813.25911.441
1913.16311.254
2013.05711.106
2112.97510.963
2212.89210.805
2312.82010.694
2412.74610.532
2512.69710.431
2612.60810.343
2712.53910.210
2812.47610.104
2912.4069.981
3012.3209.846
3112.2049.722
3212.1389.596
3312.0789.496
3412.0119.397
3511.9509.261
3611.8929.153
3711.8129.044
3811.7258.942
3911.6608.859
4011.5928.749
4111.5178.642
4211.4438.562
4311.3798.495
4411.3138.403
4511.2588.319
4611.2048.225
4711.1578.140
4811.0908.028
4911.0327.943
5010.9597.851
5110.8927.767
5210.8437.682
5310.7917.583
5410.7347.488
5510.6597.390
5610.6087.271
5710.5537.200
5810.4767.129
5910.4237.049
6010.3686.945
6110.3136.840
6210.2486.762
6310.1836.690
6410.1356.600
6510.0716.530
6610.0186.457
679.9546.390
689.8896.300
699.8366.208
709.7776.141
719.7136.048
729.6625.974
739.6115.885
749.5415.806
759.4555.716
769.3815.636
779.3005.547
789.2215.464
799.1275.384
809.0565.277
818.9675.176
828.8725.078
838.7854.964
848.7144.868
858.6274.783
868.5014.667
878.4284.545
888.3214.444
898.1844.321
908.0544.180
917.9064.045
927.7803.881
937.6553.699
947.5023.465
957.3183.290
967.1283.076
976.8542.740
986.5392.419
996.0301.996


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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