Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10137.593155.772
20104.466112.836
3085.27288.584
4069.74769.276
5057.54955.199
6046.61442.791
7037.50933.380
8027.48824.915
9017.69516.451

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1227.460280.515
2200.610239.558
3187.001223.677
4174.855210.723
5165.079201.199
6158.507188.062
7153.012178.911
8146.694170.427
9142.064162.031
10137.593155.772
11132.095150.611
12128.245144.949
13124.918140.679
14121.136136.423
15118.541131.773
16115.992128.104
17112.797123.846
18109.716119.540
19107.231115.779
20104.466112.836
21102.338110.010
22100.069106.886
2397.947104.715
2496.330101.573
2594.04199.618
2692.05397.942
2790.24695.407
2888.87893.408
2987.10491.101
3085.27288.584
3183.71386.300
3281.89484.001
3380.47182.201
3479.04980.439
3577.62878.043
3675.83076.145
3774.30374.268
3872.47772.533
3970.87171.119
4069.74769.276
4168.36767.510
4267.04666.213
4365.81665.128
4464.57263.648
4563.00862.328
4662.00760.863
4760.82659.546
4859.67557.843
4958.61356.566
5057.54955.199
5156.62853.968
5255.55052.748
5354.67251.334
5453.28949.995
5552.22748.651
5651.06747.040
5750.01546.098
5848.90945.154
5947.76844.126
6046.61442.791
6145.57041.474
6244.67240.523
6343.72839.642
6442.97638.571
6542.15737.745
6641.12136.907
6740.29636.131
6839.33535.128
6938.35234.108
7037.50933.380
7136.46732.394
7235.51131.611
7334.50930.701
7433.43529.895
7532.20629.010
7631.53328.227
7730.55927.381
7829.73826.606
7928.54425.870
8027.48824.915
8126.39424.027
8225.62623.191
8324.57322.251
8423.76121.471
8522.87320.801
8621.99919.907
8720.94418.995
8819.74418.267
8918.59617.402
9017.69516.451
9116.72915.572
9215.74414.547
9314.54513.467
9413.21012.170
9511.93711.251
9610.74410.205
979.0028.697
987.4557.415
995.2885.936


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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