Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1048.32768.473
2041.00156.550
3036.11848.832
4031.96641.753
5028.38135.772
6024.67829.664
7021.35924.334
8017.85618.912
9013.39312.852

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.88798.861
263.04689.178
359.81785.376
457.21482.246
555.19379.924
653.05776.686
751.70174.400
850.48772.254
949.28770.100
1048.32768.473
1147.46667.115
1246.54765.606
1345.71264.454
1444.94763.293
1543.97562.007
1643.32160.978
1742.74159.769
1842.21758.527
1941.54257.424
2041.00156.550
2140.52555.699
2240.00654.746
2339.37254.075
2439.00653.091
2538.49952.470
2638.01551.933
2737.52851.110
2837.03050.452
2936.49949.684
3036.11848.832
3135.75448.047
3235.32547.244
3334.84446.606
3434.47145.974
3533.89845.100
3633.51344.396
3733.04843.689
3832.66043.026
3932.28142.478
4031.96641.753
4131.60641.048
4231.24640.522
4330.88240.077
4430.55139.463
4530.15438.907
4629.72838.282
4729.28237.712
4828.96236.963
4928.64936.392
5028.38135.772
5127.90835.206
5227.52034.637
5327.13033.967
5426.67733.322
5526.33032.664
5626.04831.861
5725.70731.385
5825.37630.901
5924.96430.367
6024.67829.664
6124.30328.958
6223.91328.441
6323.54827.956
6423.30427.358
6523.01526.891
6622.72926.412
6722.39225.964
6822.08025.377
6921.72424.771
7021.35924.334
7121.03923.735
7220.72323.253
7320.45922.687
7420.10522.179
7519.78921.615
7619.37621.109
7719.02520.557
7818.65520.046
7918.28519.556
8017.85618.912
8117.48018.306
8217.15317.729
8316.70717.072
8416.24916.522
8515.79216.045
8615.49915.402
8715.04214.738
8814.58414.204
8914.00513.564
9013.39312.852
9112.84112.189
9212.26311.408
9311.60610.577
9411.0119.570
9510.0898.851
969.1828.026
978.0576.831
987.0365.810
995.3754.628


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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